Edition of July 23, 2026 · built from 5,976 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put 30+ wins at 45% this morning. · ▼ 34 points overnight · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 24, 2026? Surging Before Jul 24, 2026 | Everything Else | 80% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Above 5.2% Surging Above 5.2% | Everything Else | 84% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will the Nikkei 225 be at least ¥76,000 in July 2026? At least ¥76,000 | Everything Else | 56% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 24, 2026? 4.5% or above | Economy | 88% ▲ 58 7d: ▲ 58 |
| What will Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. say during their next earnings call? Tariff | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 50 7d: ▼ 48 |
| Above 14000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 Surging Above 14k | Everything Else | 82% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $9 at 4 PM ET on Aug 28? Above $9.00 | Everything Else | 52% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 50 |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? Helios | Everything Else | 5% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 44 |
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's 110m Hurdles after Issuance and in 2026? Men's 110m Hurdles | Everything Else | 48% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 41 |
| Will Jon Ossoff be the top ActBlue fundraiser on July 31 at 10:00 AM ET? Surging Jon Ossoff | Everything Else | 75% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 46 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 8 days | Culture | 53% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 103 days | Politics | 64% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 101 days | MLB | 32% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| San Diego vs Atlanta Winner? Atlanta · settles today | MLB | 70% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Top US Netflix Show on Jul 27, 2026? The Hawk: Season 1 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 70% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 161 days | Everything Else | 30% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 19 days | Politics | 72% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 56 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 23, 2026? Above $90.99 · settles today | Commodities | 28% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 70 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 72% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 55 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 3M Open? Scottie Scheffler · settles in 3 days | Golf | 26% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 6 days | Economy | 76% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 6 days | Economy | 24% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 838 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 838 days | Everything Else | 20% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Nelly Korda win the ISPS Handa Women's Scottish Open? Nelly Korda · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 19% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 161 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 838 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 136 days | Sports | 88% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 24, 2026? Above $94.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 10% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 6 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? Yes · settles in 5 days | Politics | 99.3% — 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France? Tadej Pogacar · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 60 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 95.5% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 61 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 6 million views? At least 6 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 97.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Tyson Fury vs Mariusz Wach Winner? Tyson Fury · settles tomorrow | Boxing | 96.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.100? Above 4.100 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 97.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will Spirit win the OG vs. Spirit CS2 match? Spirit · settles today | Sports | 93.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 23, 2026? Above $84.99 · settles today | Commodities | 94.5% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on July 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $86.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 24, 2026? 5% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 94.0% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 9 |