Edition of August 11, 2026

Edition of August 11, 2026 · built from 6,593 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.

22%

Today’s Number

What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call?

Market-consensus odds put Inflation at 22% this morning. · ▼ 33 points overnight · settles in 142 days · on unusually heavy volume

Today’s move is bigger than any daily move we have tracked on it — unusual for this market, not just large in the abstract.
Has traded between 20% and 55% over 18 tracked days — see the full history.
Buyers and sellers are 29 points apart — a thin market, so read this number as a range, not a point.

What changed

What Moved

Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.

Question		Odds
Donald Trump and Zohran Mamdani meet before Sep 1, 2026? Surging Zohran Mamdani	Everything Else	58% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 41
Will Trump say "Zohran / Mamdani" before Aug 17, 2026? Zohran / Mamdani	Everything Else	74% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 50
Will Boston be scheduled to play against Miami in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? Surging Miami	NBA	64% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 5
Will average gas prices be above $4.060? Above 4.060	Everything Else	78% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46
Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 45000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 45K	Culture	14% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 52
Will Nicole Kidman be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? Surging Nicole Kidman	Everything Else	46% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 42
Will the average U.S. price of Burger King 8-piece Chicken Nuggets for August 2026 be at least $3.48? At least $3.48	Everything Else	76% ▲ 35 7d: ▼ 9
St. Tonis vs Frankfurt Winner? Reg Time: Frankfurt	Sports	92% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 44
Will Philadelphia be scheduled to play against Boston in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season? Surging Boston	NBA	14% ▼ 40 7d: ▲ 22
Jeddeloh II vs Heidenheim: Heidenheim To Advance Heidenheim advances	Sports	89% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42

What to watch next

What to Watch Next

Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.

Question		Resolves	Odds
Will Rei Sakamoto win the Blanchet vs Sakamoto: Round Of 32 match? Rei Sakamoto	Tennis	in 5 hours	42% —
Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026? Above 30	Everything Else	in 5 hours	38% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 53
Will Dalia Al-Aqidi be the Republican nominee for MN-05? Dalia Al-Aqidi	Politics	in 9 hours	78% ▼ 5 7d: ▲ 5
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 11, 2026? Above $84.99	Commodities	in 9 hours	42% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34
Will the gold close price be above 4356 USD/t.oz on August 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4356	Commodities	in 12 hours	60% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32
Will Mayuka Aikawa win the McAdoo vs Aikawa: W50 Hamburg Round of 16 match? Mayuka Aikawa	Tennis	later today	58% —
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Yes	Politics	later today	60% —
Will Chuk Anyanwu be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 14, 2026? Chuk Anyanwu	Everything Else	in 3 days	42% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 38
Will the President's approval rating be below 38.8 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 38.8	Politics	in 3 days	20% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 5
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Yes	Everything Else	in 5 days	22% —
Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 40K	Culture	in 5 days	74% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 3
Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 2000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 2K	Culture	in 5 days	40% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 7

Still open

Up in the Air

The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.

Question		Odds
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? Robert Pattinson · settles in 163 days	Culture	52% ▼ 5 7d: ▲ 44
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 36 days	Economy	44% ▲ 10 7d: ▼ 14
Will Rafael Jodar win the Jodar vs Fils: Quarterfinal match? Rafael Jodar ·	Tennis	57% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 819 days	Politics	57% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 2
Will Mayuka Aikawa win the McAdoo vs Aikawa: W50 Hamburg Round of 16 match? Mayuka Aikawa · settles today	Tennis	58% —
What will Donald Trump say during Real America's Voice - America Speaks? Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation · settles in 15 days	Everything Else	60% —
Will Darline Graham finish 1st in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 365 days	Politics	60% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 26
Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026? Yes · settles in 143 days	Politics	26% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 14
Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 57 days	Everything Else	75% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 28
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 819 days	Politics	22% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 142 days	Everything Else	18% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 819 days	Everything Else	17% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 117 days	Sports	84% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 45000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 45K · settles in 5 days	Culture	14% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 52
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 14, 2026? Above $90.99 · settles in 3 days	Commodities	14% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 11
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 324 days	NBA	13% —
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 142 days	Economy	12% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 11, 2026? Above $81.99 · settles today	Commodities	90% ▲ 57 7d: ▲ 83

Basically Decided

Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.

Question		Likelihood
Teremoana Teremoana vs Deandre Savage Winner? Teremoana Teremoana · settles tomorrow	Boxing	95.5% — 7d: ▲ 2
Will Drake have above 13M daily views at any point during August 3, 2026 - August 9, 2026? Above 13M · settles today	Everything Else	98.5% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 57
Will Fajing Sun win the Sun vs Nurlanuly: Round Of 32 match? Fajing Sun · settles today	Tennis	94.5% —
Will Morgan Wallen have above 5.25M daily views at any point during August 3, 2026 - August 9, 2026? Above 5.25M · settles today	Everything Else	98.5% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 9
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 11, 2026? Above $78.99 · settles today	Commodities	97.5% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 67
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 11, 2026? Above $80.99 · settles today	Commodities	93.5% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 48
Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 35000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 35K · settles in 5 days	Culture	95.5% — 7d: ▲ 7
Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 25K · settles in 5 days	Culture	98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 7
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.58% on Aug 11, 2026? 4.59% or above · settles today	Economy	98.5% —
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Aug 11, 2026? 5.12% or above · settles today	Economy	98.5% —