Edition of August 15, 2026 · built from 6,019 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 1600 at 36% this morning. · ▼ 56 points overnight · settles in 30 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 3 in the FedEx St. Jude Championship? Surging Scottie Scheffler | Golf | 72% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 57 |
| Will an earthquake of at least 7.5 magnitude occur worldwide before Sep 1, 2026? Surging 7.5+ | Everything Else | 98% ▲ 78 7d: ▲ 76 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.080? Above 4.080 | Everything Else | 4% ▼ 58 7d: ▼ 23 |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5? Scottie Scheffler | Golf | 90% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will Claude App Downloads for August 2026 be above 1600 ? Surging Above 1600 | Everything Else | 36% ▼ 56 7d: ▼ 54 |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship: Will Brian Harman finish top 20? Brian Harman | Golf | 74% ▲ 53 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will Trump say "Bibi / Netanyahu" before Aug 17, 2026? Surging Bibi / Netanyahu | Everything Else | 92% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 24 |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10? Surging Viktor Hovland | Golf | 78% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 53 |
| Will Dont Say Good Luck be #2 US Netflix Movie on Aug 17, 2026? Dont Say Good Luck | Culture | 32% ▼ 57 7d: ▼ 57 |
| Will Donald Trump make between 200 and 219 Truth Social posts the week of Aug 9, 2026? Surging 200-219 | Everything Else | 48% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 34 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 80% — |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? Scottie Scheffler | Golf | later today | 64% ▲ 51 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Will Thomas Rosenmueller win the Albertsons Boise Open presented by Chevron? Thomas Rosenmueller | Everything Else | later today | 24% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will Donald Trump make between 200 and 219 Truth Social posts the week of Aug 9, 2026? 200-219 | Everything Else | tomorrow | 48% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 34 |
| The End of Oak Street Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 84 | Culture | in 2 days | 31% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Nimrods Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 75 | Culture | in 2 days | 57% ▲ 23 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Aug 17, 2026? Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Politics | in 2 days | 20% ▼ 41 7d: ▼ 60 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 17, 2026? Above $80.49 | Commodities | in 2 days | 48% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4384 USD/t.oz on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4384 | Commodities | in 2 days | 49% — |
| Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes | Politics | in 3 days | 31% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Yes | Politics | in 3 days | 21% — |
| Australia vs Bangladesh match: Bangladesh wins Bangladesh | Sports | in 3 days | 68% ▲ 13 7d: ▲ 64 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles today | Golf | 64% ▲ 51 7d: ▲ 48 |
| The End of Oak Street Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 84 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 31% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $82.99 · settles in 16 days | Commodities | 73% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will Ian Machado Garry win the Makhachev vs Garry professional MMA fight scheduled for Aug 15, 2026? Ian Machado Garry · settles today | UFC | 24% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 32 days | Economy | 24% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 35 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 815 days | Politics | 23% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 116 days | Economy | 22% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 13 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 17, 2026? Above $82.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 20% — |
| Will America win the 2026 Leagues Cup? America · settles in 23 days | Everything Else | 19% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 138 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 113 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 815 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 53 days | Everything Else | 84% — 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the margin of victory for Jared Moskowitz in the 2026 FL-25 Democratic primary be at least 5%? Jared Moskowitz, ≥5% · settles in 368 days | Politics | 84% ▼ 3 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 320 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 815 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Before Oct 1, 2026 · settles in 139 days | Politics | 88% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Robert Pattison win Best Actor at the Oscars? Robert Pattison · settles in 503 days | Culture | 10% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 7 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Claressa Shields vs Kaye Scott Winner? Claressa Shields · settles today | Boxing | 95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| The End of Oak Street Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 82 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will The Last House be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 17, 2026? The Last House · settles in 3 days | Culture | 97.5% — 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Ernesto Mercado vs Emmanuel Tagoe Winner? Ernesto Mercado · settles today | Boxing | 94.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| OpenAI market share this week? Above 15% · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 98.0% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| DeepSeek market share this week? Above 24% · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 93.5% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 16 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 75.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 17, 2026? Above $75.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 96.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 76.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 17, 2026? Above $76.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 93.0% — |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Aug 17, 2026? 5.08% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 98.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.50% on Aug 21, 2026? 4.51% or above · settles in 6 days | Economy | 97.0% — |