Today’s Number
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 15 million views?
Market-consensus odds put At least 15 million at 22% this morning. · ▼ 70 points overnight · settles in 3 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of August 22, 2026
Edition of August 22, 2026 · built from 3,081 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.
22%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 15 million views? Surging At least 15 million | Culture | 22% ▼ 70 7d: ▼ 60 |
| Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026? Before Nov 6 | Everything Else | 46% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 43 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 12 million views? At least 12 million | Culture | 36% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 40 |
| Will BTS win Best K-Pop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? BTS | Everything Else | 48% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Will Jakob Glesnes win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes | Everything Else | 28% ▲ 24 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Will The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story be #2 US Netflix Movie on Aug 24, 2026? Surging The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story | Culture | 14% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 42 |
| Will Darline Graham receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff? At least 50% | Politics | 72% ▲ 30 7d: ▼ 4 |
| It Ends Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 93 | Culture | 60% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Coyote vs. Acme Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 | Culture | 74% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.110? Above 4.110 | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 22 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Guna wins Robert Guna | Tennis | in 4 hours | 32% — |
| Vietnam wins Vietnam | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 42% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 19% — |
| Bayern Munich win the cup Bayern Munich win the cup | Everything Else | later today | 54% ▼ 19 7d: ▼ 19 |
| Rolando Romero vs Teofimo Lopez Winner? Rolando Romero | Boxing | later today | 30% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| It Ends Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 | Culture | in 2 days | 46% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 24, 2026? Above $86.49 | Commodities | in 2 days | 55% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 92 USD/Bbl on August 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $92 | Commodities | in 2 days | 56% — |
| Will Don't Say Good Luck be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 24, 2026? Don't Say Good Luck | Culture | in 3 days | 82% ▼ 11 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 | Politics | in 6 days | 24% — |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 92 USD/Bbl on August 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $92 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 56% — |
| Vietnam wins Vietnam · settles today | Everything Else | 42% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 325000? Above 325k · settles in 368 days | Politics | 34% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 25 days | Economy | 34% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Robert Guna wins Robert Guna · settles today | Tennis | 32% — |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 109 days | Economy | 32% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 24, 2026? Above $85.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 72% — |
| Will Democrats win exactly 11 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania? 11 · settles in 135 days | Politics | 22% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 808 days | Politics | 22% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Cadiz Mirandilla wins Cadiz Mirandilla · | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Carlos Lopez Montagud wins Carlos Lopez Montagud · | Tennis | 82% ▲ 31 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Don't Say Good Luck be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 24, 2026? Don't Say Good Luck · settles in 3 days | Culture | 82% ▼ 11 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 131 days | Everything Else | 16% — |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 106 days | Sports | 84% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 808 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story be #2 US Netflix Movie on Aug 24, 2026? The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story · settles in 3 days | Culture | 14% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 42 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 313 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 808 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Australia vs Bangladesh match: Australia wins Australia · settles in 5 days | Sports | 96.5% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 12 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22? Yes · settles today | Politics | 99.4% — |
| Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes · settles in 3 days | Politics | 93.7% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Tires: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Aug 24, 2026? Tires: Season 3 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 94.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 47 |
| Will Outer Banks: Season 5 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 24, 2026? Outer Banks: Season 5 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Nicholls St. wins Nicholls St. · settles in 6 days | College | 96.5% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Bangladesh Hp Xi wins Bangladesh Hp Xi · settles today | Everything Else | 97.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 24, 2026? Above $82.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 96.0% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 24, 2026? Above $82.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 95.0% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Brad and Tracy be eliminated from America's Got Talent Season 21 before Aug 27, 2026? Brad and Tracy · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 94.5% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |