Edition of August 29, 2026 · built from 3,803 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Elise Mertens at 57% this morning. · ▲ 36 points overnight · settles in 22 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US agree to or announce a new deal granting the U.S. government ownership or lease rights to Venezuelan oil fields before Oct 1, 2026? Before Oct 1, 2026 | Everything Else | 80% ▲ 56 7d: ▲ 56 |
| Will Elise Mertens win the WTA Monterrey? Surging Elise Mertens | Tennis | 57% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <76° in Boston on Aug 29, 2026? 75° or below | News | 28% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 40 |
| Will Tezzus be featured on Slime Language 3? Tezzus | Everything Else | 55% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
| What will Snowflake say during their next earnings call? Surging Snowflake Intelligence | Everything Else | 48% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 46 |
| Where will Enzo Fernandez go next? Manchester City | Everything Else | 78% ▲ 22 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.64 USD/Lbs on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.64 | Commodities | 31% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Will it rain in Houston on Aug 29, 2026? Houston | News | 30% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.070? Above 4.070 | Everything Else | 72% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 23 |
| What will Ted Cruz say during Meet the Press? Canada / Canadian | Everything Else | 57% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 25 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kateryna Diatlova wins Kateryna Diatlova | Tennis | in 3 hours | 32% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Dune Vaissaud wins Dune Vaissaud | Tennis | in 3 hours | 31% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Paper Rex wins Paper Rex | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 49% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Top Esports wins Top Esports | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 65% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-30? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 88% — |
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 | Culture | in 2 days | 26% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Buddy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 | Culture | in 2 days | 42% ▼ 5 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026? Above $81.99 | Commodities | in 2 days | 75% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31? Yes | Everything Else | in 2 days | 62% — |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.64 USD/Lbs on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.64 | Commodities | in 2 days | 31% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.7 and 39.9 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.7 to 39.9 | Politics | in 6 days | 26% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Paper Rex wins Paper Rex · settles today | Everything Else | 49% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Will Karishma Manzur receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary? At least 35% · settles in 375 days | Politics | 52% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 18 days | Economy | 56% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 102 days | Economy | 42% ▼ 8 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Brazil unemployment rate in August 2026? Above 5.3% · settles in 39 days | Economy | 41% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Top Esports wins Top Esports · settles today | Everything Else | 65% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 124 days | Culture | 67% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Kateryna Diatlova wins Kateryna Diatlova · settles today | Tennis | 32% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Will it be reported by Valmyndigheten, the Swedish Election Authority that the Orebro Party wins at least one seat in the Riksdag in the 2026 Swedish general election before Sep 25, 2026? Örebropartiet · settles in 37 days | Politics | 32% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Dune Vaissaud wins Dune Vaissaud · settles today | Tennis | 31% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 26% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026? Above $81.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 75% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 801 days | Politics | 24% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Facing El Chapo be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 31, 2026? Facing El Chapo · settles in 3 days | Culture | 20% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 801 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 125 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 306 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 801 days | Politics | 11% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 99 days | Sports | 90% — 7d: ▲ 6 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| England wins England · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 96.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Radu David Turcanu wins Radu David Turcanu · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 97.5% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Death of the Pastors Wife: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026? Death of the Pastors Wife: Season 1 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 94.5% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Sofia Camila Rojas wins Sofia Camila Rojas · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 37 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 94.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >84° in Las Vegas on Aug 29, 2026? 85° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 94.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026? Above $79.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 94.5% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 83.50 USD/Bbl on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $83.50 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 97.0% — |