Edition of September 9, 2026 · built from 4,453 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Dalton Kincaid: 25+ at 64% this morning. · ▲ 20 points overnight · settles in 4 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will average gas prices be above $4.2200? Above 4.2200 | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 76 7d: ▲ 72 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >68° in Philadelphia on Sep 9, 2026? 69° or above | News | 88% ▲ 54 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >92° in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026? 93° or above | News | 88% ▲ 33 |
| East Zone wins Surging East Zone | Everything Else | 35% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <84° in New York on Sep 9, 2026? 83° or below | News | 70% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will Dee Valladares be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Sep 11, 2026? Dee Valladares | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes | Tennis | 44% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Anthropic market share this week? Above 2.25% | Everything Else | 93% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will Legacy win FISSURE Playground 3? Legacy | Everything Else | 15% ▼ 22 |
| Will NAZA win Golden Lion for Best Film award at the 83rd Venice Festival? Surging NAZA | Culture | 34% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 30 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delaney wins Jake Delaney | Tennis | within the hour | 22% — |
| Anja Wildgruber wins Anja Wildgruber | Tennis | in 3 hours | 47% — |
| G2 wins G2 | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 50% — |
| Samsung Lions wins Samsung Lions | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 62% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,400.63 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 48% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 9, 2026? Above $94.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 46% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 60% — |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-09? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 56% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 38.8 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 38.8 | Politics | in 2 days | 14% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes | Tennis | in 4 days | 44% ▲ 22 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 25000000 streams during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week? Above 25M | Culture | in 4 days | 52% — |
| Will NAZA win Golden Lion for Best Film award at the 83rd Venice Festival? NAZA | Culture | in 5 days | 34% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 30 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 7 days | Economy | 52% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Anja Wildgruber wins Anja Wildgruber · settles today | Tennis | 47% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 7 days | Economy | 46% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes · settles in 4 days | Tennis | 44% ▲ 22 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 790 days | Politics | 38% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Primetime Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 · settles in 19 days | Culture | 62% ▼ 11 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 9, 2026? Above $93.99 · settles today | Commodities | 72% ▲ 52 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NH-01 Democratic primary be at least 80000? ≥80,000 · settles in 114 days | Politics | 25% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 790 days | Politics | 24% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? You Can See Everything · settles in 134 days | Culture | 22% — |
| Jake Delaney wins Jake Delaney · settles today | Tennis | 22% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 114 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 790 days | Everything Else | 14% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 38.8 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 38.8 · settles in 2 days | Politics | 14% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the Amgen Irish Open? Rory McIlroy · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 12% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 93.00 and 93.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 11, 2026? $93.00 to $93.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 11% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 295 days | NBA | 11% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary of United States? Maria Bartiromo · settles in 865 days | Everything Else | 10% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Alexis Galarneau wins Alexis Galarneau · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Roman Kharlamov wins Roman Kharlamov · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting? Yes · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 97.4% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.1800? Above 4.1800 · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 82 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 9, 2026? Above $91.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.0% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 9, 2026? Above $92.49 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 41 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 6 million views? At least 6 million · settles in 6 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 12 million views? At least 12 million · settles in 6 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Sep 11, 2026? 4.25% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 94.0% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.62% on Sep 11, 2026? 4.63% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 98.5% — |