Edition of September 10, 2026 · built from 3,886 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Keanin Loomis at 66% this morning. · ▲ 18 points overnight · settles in 136 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >83° in San Francisco on Sep 10, 2026? 84° or above | News | 74% ▲ 51 7d: ▲ 51 |
| Stetson wins Stetson | College | 45% ▲ 41 |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NH-01 Democratic primary be at least 80000? ≥80,000 | Politics | 76% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will Ben Kohles win the Simmons Bank Open for the Snedeker Foundation? Surging Ben Kohles | Everything Else | 32% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will Diesel Price on September 14, 2026 be above $6.08? Above $6.08 | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 29 |
| What will Ted Cruz say during RNC Midterm Convention? Socialist / Socialism | Everything Else | 82% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Michael Mayer: 40+ receiving yards Michael Mayer: 40+ | NFL | 50% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Arman Tsarukyan wins Arman Tsarukyan | UFC | 40% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Will it rain in Philadelphia on Sep 10, 2026? Philadelphia | News | 41% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2028? Before Jan 1, 2028 | Everything Else | 80% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 30 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7664.9999 on Sep 10, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,665 or above | Markets | later today | 54% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29469.99 at the end of Sep 10, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,470 or above | Markets | later today | 48% — |
| Aryna Sabalenka wins Aryna Sabalenka | Tennis | later today | 64% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Frances Tiafoe wins Frances Tiafoe | Tennis | tomorrow | 28% — |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 14% — |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the Amgen Irish Open? Rory McIlroy | Everything Else | in 3 days | 13% ▲ 1 |
| Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes | Tennis | in 3 days | 38% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 16 |
| Will Trump say "Autopen / Auto Pen" before Sep 14, 2026? Autopen / Auto Pen | Everything Else | in 4 days | 30% ▼ 2 |
| Practical Magic 2 Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 35 | Culture | in 4 days | 54% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 14, 2026? Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1 | Culture | in 5 days | 40% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | in 6 days | 46% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 13 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | in 6 days | 54% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 12 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 6 days | Economy | 54% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7664.9999 on Sep 10, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,665 or above · settles today | Markets | 54% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 6 days | Economy | 46% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 13 |
| Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -7.5% of GDP? Above -7.5% of GDP · settles in 229 days | Politics | 45% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 14, 2026? Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 40% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 789 days | Politics | 60% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 96.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 10, 2026? Above $96.49 · settles today | Commodities | 68% — |
| Will Trump say "Autopen / Auto Pen" before Sep 14, 2026? Autopen / Auto Pen · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 30% ▼ 2 |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? You Can See Everything · settles in 133 days | Culture | 26% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Koki Matsuda wins Koki Matsuda · | Tennis | 25% — |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NH-01 Democratic primary be at least 80000? ≥80,000 · settles in 113 days | Politics | 76% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 789 days | Politics | 24% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 203 days | NFL | 16% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Karol Filar wins Karol Filar · | Tennis | 14% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 113 days | Everything Else | 14% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 789 days | Everything Else | 14% — |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the Amgen Irish Open? Rory McIlroy · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 13% ▲ 1 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 294 days | NBA | 11% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| England wins England · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 98.0% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Julien De Cuyper wins Julien De Cuyper · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| India wins India · settles today | Everything Else | 94.0% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 97.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 96.50 USD/Bbl on September 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $96.50 · settles today | Commodities | 97.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 10, 2026? Above $93.49 · settles today | Commodities | 98.0% — |
| The Uprising Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 96.0% — |
| Roan Jones wins Roan Jones · settles today | Tennis | 98.0% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7584.9999 on Sep 10, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,585 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.0% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.35% on Sep 10, 2026? 4.36% or above · settles today | Economy | 94.0% — |