Edition of September 14, 2026 · built from 4,200 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:02 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Pakistan at 57% this morning. · ▼ 39 points overnight · settles in 4 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Westside Whimsy by Jhené Aiko have above 75000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 11, 2026 - September 17, 2026 tracking week? Above 75K | Culture | 92% ▲ 70 7d: ▲ 74 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° in Chicago on Sep 14, 2026? 52° to 53° | News | 50% ▲ 46 |
| Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026? Above 175 | Everything Else | 28% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 43 |
| Pakistan wins Surging Pakistan | Everything Else | 57% ▼ 39 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $113.50 by Sep 30, 2026? 113.51 or above | Commodities | 72% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 54 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 15, 2026? Above $99.99 | Commodities | 81% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.40% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.41% or above | Economy | 68% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will Andy Kaplan receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 SC-05 House election? At least 4% | Politics | 38% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Sep 18, 2026? 4.55% or above | Economy | 62% ▼ 35 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 8.0 million bpd? Above 8.0 million bpd | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 30 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KT Rolster Challengers wins KT Rolster Challengers | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 40% — |
| Anja Stankovic wins Anja Stankovic | Tennis | in 3 hours | 82% — |
| Hanshin Tigers wins Hanshin Tigers | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 62% — |
| Pietro Ricci wins Pietro Ricci | Tennis | in 4 hours | 24% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,306.91 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 72% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 102.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 14, 2026? Above $102.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 59% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 18 million views? At least 18 million | Culture | tomorrow | 74% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | tomorrow | 20% — 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | tomorrow | 80% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 38.8 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 38.8 | Politics | in 4 days | 16% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes | Everything Else | in 6 days | 22% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes | Everything Else | in 6 days | 16% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 11 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 102.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 14, 2026? Above $102.99 · settles today | Commodities | 59% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 12 |
| KT Rolster Challengers wins KT Rolster Challengers · settles today | Everything Else | 40% — |
| Will Kansas US Senate have the largest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Kansas US Senate and Nebraska US Senate? Kansas US Senate · settles in 57 days | Politics | 60% — |
| Hanshin Tigers wins Hanshin Tigers · settles today | Everything Else | 62% — |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 45 · settles in 35 days | Culture | 66% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes · settles in 109 days | Politics | 66% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,306.91 · settles today | Commodities | 72% — |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? You Can See Everything · settles in 129 days | Culture | 25% ▼ 2 |
| Pietro Ricci wins Pietro Ricci · settles today | Tennis | 24% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 785 days | Politics | 24% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles tomorrow | Economy | 20% — 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles tomorrow | Economy | 80% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 167 days | Culture | 82% — |
| Anja Stankovic wins Anja Stankovic · settles today | Tennis | 82% — |
| Will Brian Jordan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-05 House election? At least 3% · settles in 111 days | Politics | 16% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 109 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 785 days | Everything Else | 12% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 199 days | NFL | 12% — 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 290 days | NBA | 11% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 98.4% ▲ 57 7d: ▲ 57 |
| Radka Zelnickova wins Radka Zelnickova · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 14? Yes · settles today | News | 99.0% — |
| Will Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 14, 2026? Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.0% ▲ 84 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will Instadocs: The Decoy Plane be #2 US Netflix Show on Sep 14, 2026? Instadocs: The Decoy Plane · settles tomorrow | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 76 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Martina Colmegna wins Martina Colmegna · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 14, 2026? Above $99.49 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 53 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 98.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 14, 2026? Above $98.49 · settles today | Commodities | 97.0% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will it rain in Minneapolis on Sep 14, 2026? Minneapolis · settles tomorrow | News | 94.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7539.9999 on Sep 14, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,540 or above · settles today | Markets | 97.0% — |