Edition of September 30, 2026 · built from 5,180 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 69% at 18% this morning. · ▼ 34 points overnight · settles in 8 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| India A wins India A | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 16, 2026? Before Oct 16, 2026 | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 47 7d: ▼ 47 |
| Will Mary Peltola receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the final round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election? At least 46% | Sports | 94% ▲ 46 7d: ▼ 39 |
| Boston vs New York Y Wild Card series winner: New York Y wins Surging New York Y | MLB | 80% ▲ 23 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 29, 2026 be exactly 3.88%? Exactly 3.88% | Everything Else | 94% ▲ 41 |
| Will Muse by John Legend have above 20000000 streams during the October 23, 2026 - October 29, 2026 tracking week? Above 20M | Culture | 4% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 40 |
| Will Devotion by David Kushner have above 18000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week? Above 18M | Culture | 7% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Chicago WS vs Houston Wild Card series winner: Houston wins Houston | MLB | 32% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Will REBECCA by Becky Hill have above 10000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week? Above 10M | Culture | 7% ▼ 41 7d: ▼ 41 |
| Will it rain in Denver on Sep 30, 2026? Denver | News | 70% ▼ 27 7d: ▼ 27 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOUD wins LOUD | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 55% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| West Indies wins West Indies | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 16% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7699.9999 on Sep 30, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,700 or above | Markets | later today | 38% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30169.99 at the end of Sep 30, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 30,170 or above | Markets | later today | 77% — |
| New York Y wins New York Y | MLB | later today | 56% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 4 |
| San Diego wins San Diego | MLB | later today | 56% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-10-01? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 46% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.7 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.5 to 38.7 | Politics | in 2 days | 36% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 2 days | 26% — |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes | Politics | in 5 days | 27% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes | Politics | in 5 days | 35% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 47 | Culture | in 5 days | 76% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election? 2 · settles in 166 days | Politics | 47% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| LOUD wins LOUD · settles today | Everything Else | 55% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? Yes · settles in 93 days | Economy | 44% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? Yes · settles in 243 days | Premier League | 60% — 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 183 days | Culture | 68% — 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7664.9999 on Sep 30, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,665 or above · settles today | Markets | 71% — |
| Novak Djokovic wins Novak Djokovic · | Tennis | 74% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 47 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 76% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 770 days | Politics | 21% — |
| Boston vs New York Y Wild Card series winner: New York Y wins New York Y · settles in 15 days | MLB | 80% ▲ 22 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 274 days | Culture | 82% — |
| Will Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi win Best Director at the Oscars? Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi · settles in 457 days | Culture | 18% — 7d: ▲ 10 |
| West Indies wins West Indies · settles today | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 770 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes · settles in 70 days | Economy | 86% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30069.99 at the end of Sep 30, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 30,070 or above · settles today | Markets | 86% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 93 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 183 days | NFL | 14% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 770 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.1 and 39.3 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 to 39.3 · settles in 2 days | Politics | 10% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 4 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Petros Tsitsipas wins Petros Tsitsipas · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes · settles today | Everything Else | 98.6% — |
| Blake Ellis wins Blake Ellis · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29749.99 at the end of Sep 30, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,750 or above · settles today | Markets | 98.5% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29739.99 at the end of Sep 30, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,740 or above · settles today | Markets | 98.0% — |
| New Zealand Breakers wins New Zealand Breakers · settles today | Everything Else | 93.5% — |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 43 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 97.5% — |
| Will The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore by Taylor Swift have above 150000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week? Above 150K · settles in 4 days | Culture | 96.0% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will there be at least 10 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Sep 27, 2026? At least 10 · settles in 4 days | Politics | 98.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 30, 2026? Above $85.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% — |