Edition of October 2, 2026 · built from 3,724 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 6M at 15% this morning. · ▼ 76 points overnight · settles in 16 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will How To Quit Smoking by Dominic Fike have above 12000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week? Above 12K | Culture | 9% ▼ 66 7d: ▼ 66 |
| Will How To Quit Smoking by Dominic Fike have above 6000000 streams during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 6M | Culture | 15% ▼ 76 7d: ▼ 76 |
| Verity Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 | Culture | 18% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 47 |
| Will it rain in Chicago on Oct 2, 2026? Chicago | News | 4% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Will Donald Trump or the U.S. government sue Jerome Powell before 2027? Before Jan 2027 | Everything Else | 10% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 40 |
| Will Silver Sands Marina by Kenny Chesney have above 6500000 streams during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week? Above 6.5M | Culture | 84% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 4 |
| What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? Barack Hussein Obama | Everything Else | 72% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Will A Different World: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Oct 5, 2026? A Different World: Season 1 | Culture | 57% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027? Surging 5.3% or above | Economy | 62% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 31 |
| Titled Tuesday Oct 6, 2026 Top 3 Finishers: Denis Lazavik Denis Lazavik | Everything Else | 13% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Shubladze wins Alexandra Shubladze | Tennis | within the hour | 52% — |
| T1 Academy wins T1 Academy | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 66% — |
| Fukuoka Hawks wins Fukuoka Hawks | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 70% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30849.99 at the end of Oct 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 30,850 or above | Markets | later today | 66% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7699.9999 on Oct 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,700 or above | Markets | later today | 57% — |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 35 and 40 million views in week 1? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 11% — |
| Kyle Monangai: 1+ touchdowns Kyle Monangai: 1+ | NFL | in 3 days | 50% — |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? Yes | Politics | in 3 days | 72% — |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? Yes | Politics | in 3 days | 57% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 52 | Culture | in 3 days | 61% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will A Different World: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Oct 5, 2026? A Different World: Season 1 | Culture | in 4 days | 57% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 30 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the number of White House Press Briefings in Oct 2026 be at least 2? At least 2 · settles in 30 days | Politics | 48% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7699.9999 on Oct 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,700 or above · settles today | Markets | 57% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes · settles in 118 days | Economy | 57% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 52 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 61% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30849.99 at the end of Oct 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 30,850 or above · settles today | Markets | 66% — |
| Will President Trump sign at least 10 bills into law in Oct 2026? At least 10 · settles in 30 days | Politics | 66% — |
| T1 Academy wins T1 Academy · settles today | Everything Else | 66% — |
| Nagi Hanatani wins Nagi Hanatani · | Tennis | 32% — |
| Fukuoka Hawks wins Fukuoka Hawks · settles today | Everything Else | 70% — |
| Kyrian Jacquet wins Kyrian Jacquet · | Tennis | 76% — |
| Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m? Yes · | Culture | 77% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 768 days | Politics | 21% — |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? Yes · settles in 91 days | Economy | 18% — |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes · settles in 181 days | Culture | 16% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 768 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 91 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 1 |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Yes · settles in 91 days | Sports | 14% — 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 768 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will UNABOMBER be Top US Netflix Movie on Oct 5, 2026? UNABOMBER · settles in 4 days | Culture | 88% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 241 days | Champions League | 10% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? Yes · settles in 3 days | Politics | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? Yes · settles today | Everything Else | 94.5% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29989.99 at the end of Oct 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,990 or above · settles today | Markets | 96.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7594.9999 on Oct 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,595 or above · settles today | Markets | 96.0% — |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 4, 2026? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 94.8% — |
| Iga Swiatek wins Iga Swiatek · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Michael Brennan makes the cut Michael Brennan · settles today | Golf | 96.5% — |
| Will it rain in San Antonio on Oct 2, 2026? San Antonio · settles tomorrow | News | 98.5% — |
| Will it rain in Pittsburgh on Oct 2, 2026? Pittsburgh · settles tomorrow | News | 94.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 2, 2026? Above $85.49 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% — |