Today’s Number
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?
Market-consensus odds put this at 72% this morning. · ▲ 38 points overnight · settles in 6 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of October 3, 2026
Edition of October 3, 2026 · built from 4,707 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.
72%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Verity Rotten Tomatoes score? Surging Above 35 | Culture | 22% ▼ 48 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 72% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will Disney+ App Downloads for September 2026 be above 91 ? Above 91 | Everything Else | 68% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >98° in Los Angeles on Oct 3, 2026? 99° or above | News | 56% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 33 |
| What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? Surging America First | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Las Vegas Pro Basketball expansion franchise price above $8 billion Above $8 billion | NBA | 54% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 40 |
| Will Trump say "Low Energy" before Jan 1, 2027? Low Energy | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 43 |
| Will Troye Sivan perform at either of Charli XCX’s headlining performances at the 2026 Austin City Limits Music Festival? Surging Troye Sivan | Everything Else | 64% ▲ 36 |
| Will President Trump sign at least 12 bills into law in Oct 2026? At least 12 | Politics | 76% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% in Oct 2026? 5.08% or above | Economy | 88% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 33 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| G2 Esports wins G2 Esports | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 54% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 4 |
| India wins India | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 64% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 24 |
| 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs Over 0.5 runs | MLB | in 11 hours | 42% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-10-03? Yes | Everything Else | in 11 hours | 90% — |
| Kyle Monangai: 1+ touchdowns Kyle Monangai: 1+ | NFL | tomorrow | 30% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 42% — |
| Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 66% — |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 52 | Culture | in 2 days | 24% ▼ 30 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Verity Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 35 | Culture | in 2 days | 22% ▼ 68 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 5, 2026? Above $90.49 | Commodities | in 2 days | 59% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7729.9999 on Oct 5, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,730 or above | Markets | in 2 days | 46% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 37.6 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 37.6 | Politics | in 6 days | 19% — |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| G2 Esports wins G2 Esports · settles today | Everything Else | 54% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · settles tomorrow | Politics | 42% — |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.01% in Oct 2026? 5% or below · settles in 27 days | Economy | 60% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 8 |
| India wins India · settles today | Everything Else | 64% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 24 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes · settles in 117 days | Economy | 64% — 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will Michigan US Senate have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Michigan US Senate and New Hampshire US Senate? Michigan US Senate · settles in 38 days | Politics | 68% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Leylah Fernandez wins Leylah Fernandez · | Tennis | 68% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin? R+0.9 to D+0.9 · settles in 239 days | Politics | 27% — |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 52 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 24% ▼ 30 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Verity Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 35 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 22% ▼ 68 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 767 days | Politics | 21% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 90 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 767 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Mio Mushika wins Mio Mushika · | Tennis | 86% — |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 271 days | NBA | 12% ▲ 4 |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Yes · settles in 90 days | Sports | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026? 5.23% or below · settles in 27 days | Economy | 89% ▲ 8 7d: ▼ 5 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? Yes · settles tomorrow | Politics | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 48 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 96.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 4, 2026? Yes · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 94.4% — |
| Will A Different World: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Oct 5, 2026? A Different World: Season 1 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 96.5% ▲ 71 7d: ▲ 68 |
| Spirit wins Spirit · settles today | Everything Else | 95.5% — |
| Opitz / Wessels wins Opitz / Wessels · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Will it rain in New Orleans on Oct 3, 2026? New Orleans · settles tomorrow | News | 96.0% — |
| Odel Kamara wins Odel Kamara · settles today | Boxing | 97.5% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.69% on Oct 5, 2026? 4.7% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 98.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Oct 5, 2026? 5.15% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 97.0% — |