Edition of October 17, 2026 · built from 3,234 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 42 at 30% this morning. · ▼ 38 points overnight · settles in 2 days
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be <62° in New York on Oct 17, 2026? 61° or below | News | 12% ▼ 74 7d: ▼ 74 |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 42 | Culture | 30% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.2900? Above 4.2900 | Everything Else | 70% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 29 |
| Will it rain in Boston on Oct 17, 2026? Boston | News | 14% ▼ 25 |
| Klara and the Sun Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 20 | Culture | 82% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Wichita, Kansas originally scheduled for October 19, 2026? Small Business | Everything Else | 68% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >71° in Phoenix on Oct 17, 2026? 72° or above | News | 7% ▼ 31 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 94-95° in Los Angeles on Oct 17, 2026? 94° to 95° | News | 6% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will CJ Carr be the 1st Quarterback drafted? CJ Carr | NFL | 40% ▲ 30 |
| Will Lululemon Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 65 ? Above 65 | Everything Else | 36% ▲ 22 7d: ▲ 22 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jelena Ostapenko wins Jelena Ostapenko | Tennis | within the hour | 46% — |
| Team Vitality wins Team Vitality | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 31% — |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 43% — |
| West Indies wins West Indies | Everything Else | in 8 hours | 36% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 6 |
| UCLA wins by over 2.5 points UCLA wins by over 2.5 points | College | later today | 50% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Whalefall Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 72 | Culture | in 2 days | 18% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.60 USD/Lbs on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.60 | Commodities | in 2 days | 50% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4155 USD/t.oz on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4155 | Commodities | in 2 days | 60% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-16? Yes | Everything Else | in 4 days | 44% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.4 and 38.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.4 to 38.6 | Politics | in 6 days | 21% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Simona Waltert wins Simona Waltert · | Tennis | 50% — |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.60 USD/Lbs on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.60 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 50% — |
| West Indies wins West Indies · settles today | Everything Else | 36% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Donald Trump issue any announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming the next White House Press Secretary (excluding acting/interim) before Nov 6, 2026? Before Nov 6, 2026 · settles in 48 days | Politics | 34% — |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 5th District House election be at least 63 percentage points? Republicans, 63+ pts · settles in 382 days | Politics | 32% ▼ 15 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Team Vitality wins Team Vitality · settles today | Everything Else | 31% — |
| Alexander Zverev wins Alexander Zverev · | Tennis | 76% — |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 76% — 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 24% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 54 days | Economy | 76% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Whalefall Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 72 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 18% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 15 days | MLB | 16% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Klara and the Sun Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 · settles in 9 days | Culture | 16% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 76 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 753 days | Everything Else | 15% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 12 days | Economy | 86% — 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 226 days | Champions League | 10% — |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 257 days | Culture | 10% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 102.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 19, 2026? Above $102.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew William Donald wins Matthew William Donald · settles today | Tennis | 93.0% — |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 37 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Full Game: Over 24.5 points scored Over 24.5 points · settles today | College | 94.0% — |
| Will it rain in Miami on Oct 17, 2026? Miami · settles tomorrow | News | 95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.85% on Oct 19, 2026? 4.86% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 94.0% — |
| Will it rain in West Palm Beach on Oct 17, 2026? West Palm Beach · settles tomorrow | News | 96.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 17, 2026? At least 175,000 · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 98.0% — |
| What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 17, 2026? Magnitude of at least 5.6 · settles today | Everything Else | 93.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 19, 2026? Above $94.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 94.0% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.95% on Oct 19, 2026? 4.96% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 98.5% — |