Edition of October 18, 2026 · built from 4,826 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Education at 84% this morning. · ▲ 20 points overnight · settles in 15 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Delivery app downloads array index for October 2026 be above 100? Above 100 | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 49 7d: ▼ 49 |
| Will Streaming app downloads array index for October 2026 be above 105? Above 105 | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 49 7d: ▲ 49 |
| Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for October 2026 be above 336.300? Above 336.300 | Economy | 53% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 43 |
| Will Big box credit card spend array index for October 2026 be above 90? Above 90 | Everything Else | 54% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.2900? Above 4.2900 | Everything Else | 94% ▲ 30 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Fast food credit card spend array index for October 2026 be above 102? Above 102 | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 47 |
| Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 19, 2026? 5.12% or above | Economy | 50% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 448.5? Above 448.5 | Economy | 47% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will Bungalow earn its first Michelin star in 2026? Bungalow | Everything Else | 45% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Will Klarna Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 115 ? Above 115 | Everything Else | 51% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Vitality wins Team Vitality | Everything Else | within the hour | 49% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Rafael Jodar wins Rafael Jodar | Tennis | in 2 hours | 70% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Maja Chwalinska wins Maja Chwalinska | Tennis | in 4 hours | 50% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18? Yes | Everything Else | in 6 hours | 62% — |
| Sri Lanka wins Sri Lanka | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 32% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 98.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 19, 2026? Above $98.49 | Commodities | tomorrow | 55% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.60 USD/Lbs on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.60 | Commodities | tomorrow | 44% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will Doing Life be #2 US Netflix Movie on Oct 19, 2026? Doing Life | Culture | in 2 days | 39% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 21 million views? At least 21 million | Culture | in 2 days | 76% — |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 days | 30% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.4 and 38.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.4 to 38.6 | Politics | in 5 days | 22% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will "Housewife" rank No. 1–2 on Billboard Hot 100? Rank 1 to 2 · settles in 13 days | Culture | 50% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Team Vitality wins Team Vitality · settles today | Everything Else | 49% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 98.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 19, 2026? Above $98.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 55% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.60 USD/Lbs on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.60 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 44% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will "expectations" rank No. 1–2 on Billboard Hot 100? Rank 1 to 2 · settles in 13 days | Culture | 34% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Sri Lanka wins Sri Lanka · settles today | Everything Else | 32% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Tatiana Prozorova wins Tatiana Prozorova · | Tennis | 32% — |
| Rafael Jodar wins Rafael Jodar · settles today | Tennis | 70% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 53 days | Economy | 74% ▼ 1 |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 14 days | MLB | 23% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 20% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 81% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will Rob Sand's governor margin minus Josh Turek's Senate margin be at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? Sand by 12+ · settles in 51 days | Politics | 16% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 75 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 752 days | Everything Else | 15% — |
| Will Donald Trump issue any announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming the next White House Press Secretary (excluding acting/interim) before Oct 23, 2026? Before Oct 23, 2026 · settles in 47 days | Politics | 14% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 11 days | Economy | 86% — 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 225 days | Champions League | 10% — |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 256 days | Culture | 10% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will average gas prices be above $4.2900? Above 4.2900 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 94.5% ▲ 30 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Darja Suvirdjonkova wins Darja Suvirdjonkova · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 37 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 97.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Shaanxi Union FC wins Shaanxi Union FC · settles today | Everything Else | 97.5% — |
| Jessica Pieri wins Jessica Pieri · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will Animals be Top Global Netflix Movie on Oct 19, 2026? Animals · settles in 2 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.97% on Oct 19, 2026? 4.98% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 97.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 19, 2026? Above $94.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.95% on Oct 19, 2026? 4.96% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 98.5% — |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.195 USD/MMBtu on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $3.195 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 97.0% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 4 |