Edition of November 2, 2026 · built from 2,045 live consensus forecasts across 7 categories · Published 4:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 30% this morning. · ▲ 5 points overnight · settles tomorrow · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Chicago on Nov 2, 2026? Chicago | News | 30% ▼ 35 |
| Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East? Yes | Everything Else | 26% ▼ 19 7d: ▼ 19 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <83° in Dallas on Nov 2, 2026? 82° or below | News | 10% ▼ 32 |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3.5 percentage points? El-Sayed, 3.5+ pts | Politics | 57% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2.5 percentage points? James Talarico, 2.5+ pts | Politics | 62% ▲ 18 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <50° in Denver on Nov 2, 2026? 49° or below | News | 28% ▲ 23 |
| Levante To Advance Levante advances | Everything Else | 76% ▲ 22 |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes | Politics | 62% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Nebraska wins Nebraska | College | 82% ▲ 20 |
| Northwestern wins Northwestern | College | 20% ▼ 17 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $3,897.93 | Commodities | within the hour | 56% — |
| WTI Oil price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $100.16 | Commodities | within the hour | 28% — |
| Joel Schwaerzler wins Joel Schwaerzler | Tennis | in 1 hours | 60% — |
| Beatris Spasova wins Beatris Spasova | Tennis | in 5 hours | 12% — |
| Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 39.0 on Nov 2, 2026? 39.0% | Everything Else | in 9 hours | 34% — |
| Will James Fishback endorse David Jolly in the 2026 Florida governor election before Nov 3, 2026? David Jolly | Politics | tomorrow | 47% — |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 20% — |
| Invictus Gaming wins Invictus Gaming | Everything Else | tomorrow | 55% — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 54% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 62% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 1 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Hugo Dellien wins Hugo Dellien · | Tennis | 55% — |
| Invictus Gaming wins Invictus Gaming · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 55% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $3,897.93 · settles today | Commodities | 56% — |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3.5 percentage points? El-Sayed, 3.5+ pts · settles in 366 days | Politics | 57% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2.5 percentage points? James Talarico, 2.5+ pts · settles in 366 days | Politics | 62% — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes · | Politics | 36% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes · settles in 87 days | Economy | 70% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 12 |
| WTI Oil price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $100.16 · settles today | Commodities | 28% — |
| Katie Volynets wins Katie Volynets · | Tennis | 26% — |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 241 days | NBA | 22% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.9 on Nov 2, 2026? 38.9% · settles today | Everything Else | 21% — |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 60 days | Economy | 18% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 60 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 737 days | Everything Else | 16% — |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 241 days | Culture | 14% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 230 days | Champions League | 14% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 737 days | Politics | 12% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 94.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Yes · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 96.8% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes · settles tomorrow | Politics | 96.5% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes · settles tomorrow | Politics | 97.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Ana Sofia Sanchez wins Ana Sofia Sanchez · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Eric David Verdes wins Eric David Verdes · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will it rain in Oklahoma City on Nov 2, 2026? Oklahoma City · settles tomorrow | News | 93.5% — |
| Will it rain in Miami on Nov 2, 2026? Miami · settles tomorrow | News | 97.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 2, 2026? Above $94.99 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% — |