Edition of November 6, 2026 · built from 1,723 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 4:03 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 34% this morning. · ▼ 16 points overnight · settles in 60 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will average gas prices be above $4.0100? Above 4.0100 | Everything Else | 68% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will it rain in Albuquerque on Nov 6, 2026? Albuquerque | News | 21% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Will AP call the 2026 Mississippi U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 11, 2026? Before Nov 11 | Politics | 67% ▲ 39 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Miami (OH) wins Miami (OH) | College | 97% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 34% ▼ 16 7d: ▼ 31 |
| Louisville wins Louisville | College | 96% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will TreVeyon Henderson be traded before Dec 1, 2026? TreVeyon Henderson | NFL | 18% ▼ 21 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Brandin Cooks: 1+ touchdowns Brandin Cooks: 1+ | NFL | 18% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Celonis IPO before 2027? Yes | Everything Else | 19% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Jordan Watkins: 1+ touchdowns Jordan Watkins: 1+ | NFL | 18% ▼ 13 7d: ▼ 13 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,076.05 | Commodities | within the hour | 66% — |
| Silver price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $52.164 | Commodities | within the hour | 52% — |
| Adelina Lacinova wins Adelina Lacinova | Tennis | in 4 hours | 14% — |
| Martha Matoula wins Martha Matoula | Tennis | in 5 hours | 64% — |
| India wins India | Everything Else | tomorrow | 58% — |
| Invictus Gaming wins Invictus Gaming | Everything Else | tomorrow | 20% — |
| Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 62% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Wild Horse Nine Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 | Culture | in 3 days | 54% — |
| Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 days | 41% — |
| Will AP call the 2026 North Carolina 3rd Congressional District U.S. House election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 18, 2026? Before Nov 18 | Politics | in 5 days | 33% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will AP call the 2026 Mississippi U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 14, 2026? Before Nov 14 | Politics | in 5 days | 86% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Wild Horse Nine Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 54% — |
| Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027 · settles in 787 days | Everything Else | 46% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 13.5 percentage points? Democrats, ≥13.5% · settles in 89 days | Politics | 55% — |
| Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-27? Yes · settles in 237 days | Premier League | 42% — |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes · settles in 56 days | Economy | 66% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes · settles in 56 days | Economy | 34% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 16 |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,076.05 · settles today | Commodities | 66% — |
| Will Pedro Alliana be the next President of Paraguay before Jan 1, 2029? Pedro Alliana · settles in 794 days | Politics | 68% — |
| What will Chuck Schumer say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled for November 5, 2026? Oil / Gas / Gasoline · settles in 13 days | Everything Else | 25% — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes · | Politics | 23% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 19 |
| Diletta Cherubini wins Diletta Cherubini · | Tennis | 80% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 733 days | Politics | 18% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26569.99 at the end of Nov 6, 2026 at 10am EST? 26,570 or above · settles today | Markets | 82% — |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 226 days | Champions League | 14% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Adelina Lacinova wins Adelina Lacinova · settles today | Tennis | 14% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 733 days | Everything Else | 13% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 56 days | Everything Else | 12% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes · settles in 146 days | Culture | 12% — |
| Will Adam Hamilton be Time Person of the Year in 2026? Adam Hamilton · settles in 56 days | Culture | 11% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? Yes · settles tomorrow | Politics | 95.5% — |
| Will Al Hazem SC vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club end in a draw? Yes · settles today | Sports | 99.2% — |
| Ioannis Xilas wins Ioannis Xilas · settles today | Tennis | 96.0% — |
| Will it rain in Seattle on Nov 6, 2026? Seattle · settles tomorrow | News | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7259.9999 on Nov 6, 2026 at 10am EST? 7,260 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 6, 2026? Above $84.99 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 6, 2026? Above $83.49 · settles today | Commodities | 98.0% — |
| Will AP call the 2026 North Carolina 3rd Congressional District U.S. House election before 12:00 AM ET on Dec 1, 2026? Before Dec 1 · settles in 5 days | Politics | 95.0% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26199.99 at the end of Nov 6, 2026 at 10am EST? 26,200 or above · settles today | Markets | 95.0% — |
| Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Nov 6, 2026? 4.61% or above · settles today | Economy | 93.0% — |