Edition of July 18, 2026 · built from 7,963 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above $9000 at 68% this morning. · ▲ 46 points overnight · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Kylie Jenner attend 2026 FIFA World Cup Final in 2026? Surging Kylie Jenner | World Cup | 94% ▲ 53 7d: ▲ 74 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.020? Surging Above 4.020 | Everything Else | 10% ▼ 47 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $9000 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026? Surging Above $9000 | World Cup | 68% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 59 |
| #2 Global Netflix Movie on Jul 20, 2026? Surging Voicemails for Isabelle | Culture | 59% ▲ 49 7d: ▲ 52 |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? Hippo | Everything Else | 3% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will Any Halftime Performer perform Butter at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium? Butter | World Cup | 6% ▼ 51 7d: ▲ 1 |
| The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 40? Cameron Young | Golf | 98% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 70 |
| The Open Championship: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 20? Si Woo Kim | Golf | 74% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 38 |
| What will David Muir say during ABC World News Tonight with David Muir? Election | Everything Else | 54% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Will Trump endorse at least 10 people on Truth Social this week? Surging At least 10 | Everything Else | 53% ▲ 36 7d: ▼ 24 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 108 days | Politics | 57% — 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles tomorrow | World Cup | 59% — 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles tomorrow | World Cup | 40% — 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? 32,000 or above · settles in 166 days | Markets | 39% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 25 |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0 · settles in 11 days | Economy | 34% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 17 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 144 days | Economy | 34% — 7d: ▼ 10 |
| France vs England: To Advance France · settles today | World Cup | 66% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes · settles in 166 days | Culture | 30% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 30% ▼ 14 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 166 days | Everything Else | 28% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 · settles in 167 days | Everything Else | 26% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 14 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 843 days | Everything Else | 20% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 843 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? Troy Jackson · settles in 21 days | Politics | 84% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 166 days | Economy | 16% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the The Open Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles today | Golf | 14% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| What will be Jalen Duren's next team? Detroit · settles in 95 days | Everything Else | 88% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 843 days | Politics | 12% — |
| Will The Real Me by Future have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? Above 140K · settles tomorrow | Culture | 90% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 60 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 93 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? Yes · settles tomorrow | Culture | 97.2% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season? At least 1 · settles in 2 days | World Cup | 95.5% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Top Coding AI this week? Kimi · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 96.5% — 7d: ▲ 94 |
| Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $6500 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026? Above $6500 · settles tomorrow | World Cup | 95.5% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 59 |
| Best AI this week Claude · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the copper close price be above 5.80 USD/Lbs on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $5.80 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 98.0% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 83 USD/Bbl on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $83 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 96.5% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >59° on Jul 18, 2026? 60° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 94.0% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |