Edition of July 24, 2026 · built from 7,540 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Before Sep 1, 2026 at 62% this morning. · ▲ 28 points overnight · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Rain in Houston in Jul 2026? Surging Above 4 inches | Everything Else | 96% ▲ 63 7d: ▼ 2 |
| 3M Open: Will Ben Kohles finish top 20? Ben Kohles | Golf | 84% ▲ 54 7d: ▲ 55 |
| 3M Open: Will Ben Kohles finish top 10? Surging Ben Kohles | Golf | 68% ▲ 52 7d: ▲ 54 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >94° on Jul 24, 2026? 95° or above | News | 75% ▲ 62 7d: ▲ 62 |
| Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 27, 2026? Before Jul 27, 2026 | Everything Else | 32% ▼ 45 |
| Will Yasmine and Tommy S finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island UK Season 13? Surging Yasmine and Tommy S | Everything Else | 22% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 48 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >66° on Jul 24, 2026? 67° or above | News | 80% ▲ 62 |
| What will Palantir Technologies Inc. say during their next earnings call? International | Everything Else | 27% ▼ 62 7d: ▼ 62 |
| 3M Open: Will Ben Kohles finish top 5? Surging Ben Kohles | Golf | 50% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 43 |
| What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call? Amazon | Everything Else | 28% ▼ 54 7d: ▼ 54 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 7 days | Culture | 52% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 3M Open? Scottie Scheffler · settles tomorrow | Golf | 38% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 102 days | Politics | 64% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 100 days | MLB | 34% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 18 days | Politics | 70% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 160 days | Everything Else | 30% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Stefan Adrian Andreescu win the Papoe vs Andreescu: M25+H Bacau Quarterfinal match? Stefan Adrian Andreescu · settles today | Tennis | 28% — |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0 · settles in 5 days | Economy | 26% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 5 days | Economy | 75% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 5 days | Economy | 24% — 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 837 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 837 days | Everything Else | 20% — |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 160 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on July 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $94.99 · settles today | Commodities | 14% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 837 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 135 days | Sports | 88% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026? Ariana Grande · settles in 8 days | Culture | 88% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Top US Netflix Show on Jul 27, 2026? The Hawk: Season 1 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 88% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will Nelly Korda win the ISPS Handa Women's Scottish Open? Nelly Korda · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 10% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 8 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes · settles in 7 days | Everything Else | 99.2% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France? Tadej Pogacar · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 93.5% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Tyson Fury vs Mariusz Wach Winner? Tyson Fury · settles today | Boxing | 96.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 60 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 94.5% ▲ 13 7d: ▲ 59 |
| Hamzah Sheeraz vs Simon Zachenhuber Winner? Hamzah Sheeraz · settles tomorrow | Boxing | 95.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 6 million views? At least 6 million · settles in 4 days | Culture | 97.5% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on July 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $86.99 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 24, 2026? Above $85.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% — |
| Will the minimum temperature be >56° on Jul 24, 2026? 57° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 97.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 24, 2026? 4.65% or above · settles today | Economy | 94.5% — |