Edition of July 27, 2026 · built from 7,822 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above $5.50 at 70% this morning. · ▲ 15 points overnight · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Tommy be eliminated from Love Island UK S13 before Aug 1, 2026? Surging Tommy S | Everything Else | 70% ▲ 59 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $4.50 in July 2026? Surging Above $4.50 | Everything Else | 72% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Ungraded Price of the Ascended Heroes Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) on Collectr be above $445.57 on 2026-07-31T23:59:00-04:00? Above $445.57 | Everything Else | 53% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 8, 2026 Surging Choosin' Texas | Culture | 58% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 30 |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? Helios | Everything Else | 92% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will Jon Ossoff be the top ActBlue fundraiser on July 31 at 10:00 AM ET? Surging Jon Ossoff | Everything Else | 48% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 10 |
| What will Ferrari N.V. say during their next earnings call? Tariff | Everything Else | 46% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
| What will Toast, Inc. say during their next earnings call? Agent / Agentic | Everything Else | 29% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 43 |
| Will APOP by Tyla have above 5000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 5K | Culture | 72% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Rain in Miami in Jul 2026? Surging Above 4 inches | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 28 7d: ▼ 11 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 4 days | Culture | 50% — |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 99 days | Politics | 62% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 4 |
| West Indies vs Pakistan match: Pakistan wins Pakistan · settles in 3 days | Sports | 36% ▲ 13 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 27, 2026? Above $84.49 · settles today | Commodities | 30% ▼ 52 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m? Yes · settles in 7 days | Culture | 71% — |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 15 days | Politics | 72% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 · settles in 158 days | Everything Else | 26% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 8 |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0 · settles in 2 days | Economy | 26% — 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 339 days | NBA | 22% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 157 days | Everything Else | 20% — 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 834 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles tomorrow | Economy | 80% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 13 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 834 days | Everything Else | 20% — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles tomorrow | Economy | 20% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 157 days | Everything Else | 18% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 132 days | Sports | 86% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 834 days | Politics | 12% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Philadelphia win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals? Philadelphia · settles in 369 days | NBA | 12% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Top US Netflix Movie on Jul 27, 2026? 72 HOURS · settles tomorrow | Culture | 10% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 68 |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 75 · settles today | Culture | 10% ▼ 9 7d: ▲ 2 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 99.2% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Andrea Motta win the Giotis vs Motta: M15 Astana Round of 32 match? Andrea Motta · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? Yes · settles today | Politics | 98.5% — |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026? Yes · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 96.7% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Top US Netflix Show on Jul 27, 2026? The Hawk: Season 1 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 96.5% — 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Will T1 win the T1 vs. Dplus KIA League of Legends match? T1 · settles today | Sports | 96.0% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 70 · settles today | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 56 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 74.99 USD/Bbl on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $74.99 · settles in 4 days | Commodities | 96.5% — 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7411.98 on Jul 27, 2026 at 4pm EDT? Above 7411.98 · settles today | Markets | 93.5% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4035 USD/t.oz on July 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4035 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 6 |