Edition of August 1, 2026 · built from 7,371 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Proposition 45 at 77% this morning. · ▲ 17 points overnight · settles in 459 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Reality Awaits by The Strokes have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 30K | Culture | 94% ▲ 83 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Sep 1, 2026? Surging Before September | Culture | 98% ▲ 80 7d: ▲ 57 |
| Will Justin Bieber have above 16.5M daily views at any point during July 27 - August 2, 2026? Above 16.5M | Everything Else | 88% ▲ 54 7d: ▲ 54 |
| Will Denis Shapovalov win the ATP Los Cabos? Surging Denis Shapovalov | Tennis | 66% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Surging At least 30% | Politics | 79% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Russell Westbrook's next team before Oct 21, 2026: Houston Houston | NBA | 61% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 47 |
| China unemployment rate in July 2026? Above 5.3% | Economy | 50% ▲ 46 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Mason Miller's next team before Aug 5, 2026: San Diego San Diego | MLB | 42% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 45 |
| What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement? Surging Budget / Deficit | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 52 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Will Donald Trump make between 160 and 179 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 26, 2026? 160-179 | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 74 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cameron Young win the Rocket Classic? Cameron Young | Golf | later today | 26% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will Hae-Ran Ryu win the AIG Women's Open? Hae-Ran Ryu | Everything Else | later today | 44% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Miami vs Columbus Winner? Miami | MLS | later today | 60% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 80000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Above 80K | Culture | tomorrow | 15% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 82% — |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 72% — |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 89 | Culture | in 2 days | 70% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 3, 2026? Above $89.99 | Commodities | in 2 days | 29% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 88 USD/Bbl on August 03, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $88 | Commodities | in 2 days | 70% — |
| Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? Yes | Politics | in 3 days | 68% — |
| Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026? Above 60 | Everything Else | in 3 days | 57% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County? Oakland | Politics | in 3 days | 48% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 37 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Hae-Ran Ryu win the AIG Women's Open? Hae-Ran Ryu · settles today | Everything Else | 44% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 10 days | Politics | 62% ▲ 9 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 94 days | Politics | 62% ▲ 1 |
| Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.0 ? Above 334.0 · settles in 18 days | Economy | 36% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 46 days | Economy | 36% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 89 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 70% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 11 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes · settles in 61 days | Sports | 28% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Cameron Young win the Rocket Classic? Cameron Young · settles today | Golf | 26% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 152 days | Everything Else | 24% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 152 days | Everything Else | 22% — 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 829 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 829 days | Everything Else | 19% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 127 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 80000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Above 80K · settles tomorrow | Culture | 15% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 829 days | Politics | 12% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes · settled | Economy | 12% — |
| GDP growth in 2033? 2.1% to 2.5% · settles in 2768 days | Economy | 10% — |
| Will Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine win the Miyoshi vs Bittoun Kouzmine: Semifinal match? Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine · settles today | Tennis | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 88 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026? Above 40 · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 95.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 3, 2026? 72 HOURS · settles in 3 days | Culture | 97.5% — 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.080? Above 4.080 · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will Stefan Adrian Andreescu win the Andreescu vs Ferrari: M25 Pitesti Semifinal match? Stefan Adrian Andreescu · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Will Lucie Petruzelova win the Gniewkowska vs Petruzelova: W15 Bielsko Biala Semifinal match? Lucie Petruzelova · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kalamazoo County? Kalamazoo · settles in 3 days | Politics | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 3, 2026? Above $79.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 94.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Grand Traverse County? Grand Traverse · settles in 3 days | Politics | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 3, 2026? Above $78.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |