Edition of August 2, 2026 · built from 7,426 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Advertising at 62% this morning. · ▲ 38 points overnight · settles in 151 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Rocket Classic: Will Davis Riley finish top 20? Davis Riley | Golf | 94% ▲ 60 7d: ▲ 60 |
| Rocket Classic: Will Davis Riley finish top 10? Davis Riley | Golf | 82% ▲ 64 7d: ▲ 64 |
| Will Morgan Wallen have above 5.75M daily views at any point during July 27 - August 2, 2026? Above 5.75M | Everything Else | 95% ▲ 75 7d: ▲ 75 |
| Will Justin Bieber have above 16.75M daily views at any point during July 27 - August 2, 2026? Surging Above 16.75M | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 65 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 14.5M daily views at any point during July 27 - August 2, 2026? Above 14.5M | Culture | 96% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 66 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 3, 2026? Surging Above $85.49 | Commodities | 12% ▼ 55 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 18 million views? At least 18 million | Culture | 18% ▼ 54 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will at least 5 judges be confirmed in Aug 2026? At least 5 | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 54 7d: ▼ 54 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 88 USD/Bbl on August 03, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $88 | Commodities | 16% ▼ 57 7d: ▼ 57 |
| Will YoungBoy Never Broke Again have above 7.2M daily views at any point during July 27 - August 2, 2026? Surging Above 7.2M | Everything Else | 98% ▲ 62 7d: ▲ 74 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Victoria Milovanova win the Mamedova vs Milovanova: W15 Astana Final match? Victoria Milovanova | Tennis | in 4 hours | 22% — |
| Will Alexandra Eala win the Pegula vs Eala: Final match? Alexandra Eala | Tennis | in 10 hours | 42% — |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 89 | Culture | tomorrow | 84% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" before Aug 3, 2026? Peace in the Middle East | Everything Else | tomorrow | 22% ▲ 11 7d: ▼ 31 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 3, 2026? Above $80.99 | Commodities | tomorrow | 48% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7524.9999 on Aug 3, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,525 or above | Markets | tomorrow | 38% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026? Above 60 | Everything Else | in 2 days | 82% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 79 |
| #2 Global Netflix Show on Aug 3, 2026? Ransom Canyon: Season 2 | Culture | in 2 days | 70% ▼ 20 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County? Genesee | Politics | in 2 days | 70% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 29 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 6 days | 29% — |
| Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Before Aug 8, 2026 | Politics | in 6 days | 38% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 11 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.0 ? Above 334.0 · settles in 17 days | Economy | 40% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 45 days | Economy | 40% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 9 days | Politics | 62% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 93 days | Politics | 62% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the Oscars? Matt Damon · settles in 516 days | Culture | 36% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes · settles in 60 days | Sports | 36% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes · settles in 88 days | Economy | 69% — 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will Victoria Milovanova win the Mamedova vs Milovanova: W15 Astana Final match? Victoria Milovanova · settles today | Tennis | 22% — |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 151 days | Everything Else | 22% — 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 828 days | Politics | 21% ▲ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 151 days | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 828 days | Everything Else | 19% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Hae-Ran Ryu win the AIG Women's Open? Hae-Ran Ryu · settled | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 14 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will Cameron Young win the Rocket Classic? Cameron Young · settled | Golf | 16% ▼ 10 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 89 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 84% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 126 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 3, 2026? Above $85.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 12% ▼ 49 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 828 days | Politics | 12% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m? Yes · settles today | Culture | 96.1% — |
| Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026? Above 50 · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 93.0% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 69 |
| Will Lia Karatancheva win the Karatancheva vs Hurkacz: Qualification Round 1 match? Lia Karatancheva · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 3, 2026? 72 HOURS · settles in 2 days | Culture | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 21 |
| Will Astrid Lew Yan Foon win the Lew Yan Foon vs Nesmianovych: W75 Koksijde Round of 32 match? Astrid Lew Yan Foon · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the August Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting? Maintain current rate · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 96.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will Mallory McMorrow endorse No one in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026? No one · settles in 2 days | Politics | 93.5% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Grand Traverse County? Grand Traverse · settles in 2 days | Politics | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the gold close price be above 3764.99 USD/t.oz on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $3764.99 · settles in 6 days | Commodities | 98.5% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 3824.99 USD/t.oz on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $3824.99 · settles in 6 days | Commodities | 97.5% — |