Edition of August 4, 2026 · built from 6,204 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 1160 Million at 29% this morning. · ▼ 34 points overnight · settles in 16 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Guemes vs Tristan Suarez Winner? Tristan Suarez | Sports | 97% ▲ 67 7d: ▲ 67 |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 320000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 320K | Culture | 65% ▲ 47 7d: ▼ 9 |
| West Indies vs Pakistan match: West Indies wins Surging West Indies | Sports | 12% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Tony Rotten Tomatoes score? Surging Above 95 | Culture | 19% ▼ 37 7d: ▼ 18 |
| What will Spotify Technology S.A. say during their next earnings call? Surging Peloton | Culture | 59% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will Justin Bieber have above 17M daily views at any point during August 2026? Surging Above 17M | Everything Else | 37% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 47 |
| What will Toast, Inc. say during their next earnings call? Preferred | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score? Surging Above 75 | Everything Else | 22% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 64 |
| Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.2 ? Above 334.2 | Economy | 20% ▼ 36 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will Carbon Arc Walmart Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 1160 Million? Surging Above 1160 Million | Everything Else | 29% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 14 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zsombor Piros win the Piros vs Rincon: Round Of 32 match? Zsombor Piros | Tennis | in 2 hours | 62% — |
| Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-04? Yes | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 86% — |
| Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026? Above 60 | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 74% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 62 |
| Bayern Munich wins by more than 2.5 goals? Bayern Munich wins by more than 2.5 goals | Everything Else | in 6 hours | 58% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 4, 2026? Above $80.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 70% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7604.9999 on Aug 4, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,605 or above | Markets | later today | 64% — |
| West Indies vs Pakistan match: Pakistan wins Pakistan | Sports | in 3 days | 70% ▲ 21 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 39.2 | Politics | in 3 days | 79% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? Yes | Everything Else | in 4 days | 10% — |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 320000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 320K | Culture | in 5 days | 65% ▲ 47 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? Yes | Politics | in 6 days | 90% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Tony Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 | Culture | in 6 days | 19% ▼ 37 7d: ▼ 18 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 43 days | Economy | 42% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026? Yes · settles in 150 days | Politics | 40% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will Zsombor Piros win the Piros vs Rincon: Round Of 32 match? Zsombor Piros · settles today | Tennis | 62% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7604.9999 on Aug 4, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,605 or above · settles today | Markets | 64% — |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 320000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 320K · settles in 5 days | Culture | 65% ▲ 47 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes · settles in 86 days | Economy | 66% — 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 4, 2026? Above $80.99 · settles today | Commodities | 70% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Where will Vinicius Junior go next? Arsenal · settles in 59 days | Everything Else | 30% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 149 days | Everything Else | 22% ▲ 1 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 826 days | Politics | 21% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Tony Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 19% ▼ 37 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 826 days | Everything Else | 19% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 124 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028? Iowa · settles in 613 days | Politics | 14% — 7d: ▲ 6 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? Yes · settles in 58 days | Sports | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 before Aug 5, 2026? Max Miller (before 8/5) · settles in 14 days | Everything Else | 12% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 15 |
| West Indies vs Pakistan match: West Indies wins West Indies · settles in 3 days | Sports | 12% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 826 days | Politics | 12% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Guemes vs Tristan Suarez Winner? Tristan Suarez · settles tomorrow | Sports | 97.0% ▲ 67 7d: ▲ 67 |
| Will Henri Squire win the Gomez vs Squire: Round Of 32 match? Henri Squire · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026? Above 50 · settles today | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 68 |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 280000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 280K · settles in 5 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 77.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 4, 2026? Above $77.49 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% ▲ 8 |
| Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Aug 2, 2026? At least 2 · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 78.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 4, 2026? Above $78.49 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 21 |
| Will The Outlaw Cherie Lee & Other Western Tales by Shaboozey have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 25K · settles in 5 days | Culture | 93.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Grand Traverse County? Grand Traverse · settles today | Politics | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7509.9999 on Aug 4, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,510 or above · settles today | Markets | 95.0% — |