Edition of August 12, 2026 · built from 5,731 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above $55.50 at 24% this morning. · ▼ 26 points overnight · settles in 111 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 45000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 45K | Culture | 97% ▲ 64 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will the margin of victory for Lisa Demuth in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12%? Surging Lisa Demuth, 9-12% | Politics | 66% ▲ 60 7d: ▲ 61 |
| Will Ralph Norman receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Surging At least 25% | Politics | 2% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 41 |
| Will Mike Lindell receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary? At least 35% | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 50 7d: ▼ 50 |
| Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 103 ? Above 103 | Everything Else | 51% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 44 |
| Will Mark Sanford receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Surging At least 15% | Politics | 14% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 19 |
| Will DraftKings Inc. report Above 3.6 million average monthly unique payers in Q3 2026? Above 3.6 million | Everything Else | 46% ▼ 39 7d: ▼ 31 |
| Will Roblox Corporation report Above 41 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026? Above 41 billion | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will Democrats win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio? Alaska, Iowa, Ohio | Everything Else | 40% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will Claude App Downloads for August 2026 be above 2000 ? Above 2000 | Everything Else | 29% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 42 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the KT Wiz win by over 1.5 runs? KT Wiz wins by over 1.5 runs | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 52% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 12, 2026? Above $83.49 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 52% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will Chuk Anyanwu be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 14, 2026? Chuk Anyanwu | Everything Else | in 2 days | 42% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.1 and 39.3 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 to 39.3 | Politics | in 2 days | 36% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on August 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $86.99 | Commodities | in 2 days | 69% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Yes | Everything Else | in 4 days | 24% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? Scottie Scheffler | Golf | in 4 days | 16% — |
| Will Islam Makhachev win the Makhachev vs Garry professional MMA fight scheduled for Aug 15, 2026? Islam Makhachev | UFC | in 4 days | 76% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 50K | Culture | in 4 days | 57% ▲ 48 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 days | 20% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes | Politics | in 6 days | 28% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will The Last House be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 17, 2026? The Last House | Culture | in 6 days | 88% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 50K · settles in 4 days | Culture | 57% ▲ 48 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 818 days | Politics | 58% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 35 days | Economy | 40% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 19 |
| Will Rei Sakamoto win the Blanchet vs Sakamoto: Round Of 32 match? Rei Sakamoto · | Tennis | 39% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 12, 2026? Above $82.99 · settles today | Commodities | 64% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026? Yes · settles in 142 days | Politics | 28% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 13 |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0 · settles in 35 days | Economy | 26% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 56 days | Everything Else | 74% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 818 days | Politics | 22% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 141 days | Everything Else | 18% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 818 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia before Sep 1, 2026? Before Sep 1, 2026 · settles in 142 days | Everything Else | 17% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Before Oct 1, 2026 · settles in 142 days | Politics | 83% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 116 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles in 4 days | Golf | 16% — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 323 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 141 days | Economy | 12% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Robert Pattison win Best Actor at the Oscars? Robert Pattison · settles in 506 days | Culture | 10% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 5 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Teremoana Teremoana vs Deandre Savage Winner? Teremoana Teremoana · settles today | Boxing | 96.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Australia vs Bangladesh match: Australia wins Australia · settles in 6 days | Sports | 94.5% — |
| Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 45000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 45K · settles in 4 days | Culture | 97.0% ▲ 64 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.020? Above 4.020 · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 96.5% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.040? Above 4.040 · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 93.5% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 47 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 12, 2026? Above $80.49 · settles today | Commodities | 95.0% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 12, 2026? Above $78.99 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 16 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.61% on Aug 12, 2026? 4.62% or above · settles today | Economy | 98.5% — |
| Nimrods Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 45 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.10% on Aug 12, 2026? 4.11% or above · settles today | Economy | 98.5% — |