Edition of August 18, 2026 · built from 5,647 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 1.84 million at 50% this morning. · ▲ 41 points overnight · settles in 191 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Initiative 1 pass? Yes | Everything Else | 26% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 52 |
| Will WILD by KATSEYE have above 200000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026 tracking week? Above 200K | Culture | 14% ▼ 46 7d: ▲ 12 |
| H100 SXM price up in next week? Price to Beat: 2.79 | Everything Else | 84% ▲ 52 7d: ▲ 53 |
| Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 102 ? Above 102 | Everything Else | 55% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 41 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Lima mayoral election? Rafael López Aliaga | Politics | 50% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 44 |
| St. Tonis vs Frankfurt Winner? Reg Time: Frankfurt | Sports | 48% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 44 |
| Will Venture Global, Inc. report Above 460 tbtu lng volumes in Q3 2026? Above 460 tbtu | Everything Else | 76% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Marriott International report Above 1.84 million total rooms in Q3 2026? Surging Above 1.84 million | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 102.5 ? Above 102.5 | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will it rain in New York City on Aug 18, 2026? New York City | Everything Else | 57% ▲ 36 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meiling Wang win the Wang vs Zhu: W15 Tianjin Round of 32 match? Meiling Wang | Tennis | in 2 hours | 46% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be exactly 39.1 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 | Politics | in 7 hours | 40% — |
| Will James Fishback receive at least 11% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary? At least 11% | Everything Else | in 9 hours | 43% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 18, 2026? Above $83.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 55% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-18? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 48% — |
| Sri Lanka vs India match: India wins India | Sports | tomorrow | 86% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will Kamu Kirk be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 21, 2026? Kamu Kirk | Everything Else | in 3 days | 54% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 47 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.1 and 39.3 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 to 39.3 | Politics | in 3 days | 38% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 days | 30% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7775 and 7799.9999 on Aug 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,775 to 7,799.9999 | Markets | in 4 days | 48% — |
| Will WILD by KATSEYE have above 175000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026 tracking week? Above 175K | Culture | in 5 days | 54% ▼ 33 7d: ▲ 36 |
| It Ends Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 90 | Culture | in 6 days | 56% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 8 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Tie win Outstanding Variety Series at the Emmy Awards? Tie · settles in 28 days | Culture | 48% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7775 and 7799.9999 on Aug 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,775 to 7,799.9999 · settles in 4 days | Markets | 48% — |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes · settles in 72 days | Economy | 40% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will James Fishback receive at least 12% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary? At least 12% · settles today | Politics | 36% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 113 days | Economy | 28% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Coyote vs. Acme Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles in 13 days | Culture | 24% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 812 days | Politics | 23% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gaeul Jang win the Schunk vs Jang: W50 Prague Round of 32 match? Gaeul Jang · settles today | Tennis | 21% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 18, 2026? Above $82.99 · settles today | Commodities | 82% ▲ 53 7d: ▲ 56 |
| Will America win the 2026 Leagues Cup? America · settles in 20 days | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 135 days | Everything Else | 18% ▲ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 110 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 812 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Before Oct 1, 2026 · settles in 136 days | Politics | 85% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Sri Lanka vs India match: India wins India · settles tomorrow | Sports | 86% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 50 days | Everything Else | 86% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 317 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 812 days | Politics | 11% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Rudolf Molleker win the Soto vs Molleker: Round Of 32 match? Rudolf Molleker · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes · settles in 7 days | Politics | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Amanda Serrano vs Lucrecia Anabella Manzur Winner? Amanda Serrano · settles in 4 days | Boxing | 93.5% ▼ 1 |
| Will WILD by KATSEYE have above 150000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026 tracking week? Above 150K · settles in 5 days | Culture | 96.5% — 7d: ▲ 84 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 18, 2026? Above $81.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% ▲ 59 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 18, 2026? Above $80.99 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will there be more than 10 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 10, 2026 to Aug 16, 2026? Above 10 · settles today | Everything Else | 98.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Best AI this week Claude · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — |
| It Ends Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 75 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 96.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.12% on Aug 18, 2026? 4.13% or above · settles today | Economy | 95.0% — |