Today’s Number
Will Aaron Donald play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?
Market-consensus odds put Aaron Donald at 35% this morning. · ▼ 22 points overnight · settles in 13 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of September 2, 2026
Edition of September 2, 2026 · built from 4,140 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
35%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Trump endorse at least 20 people on Truth Social this week? At least 20 | Everything Else | 76% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 66 |
| Will Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo before Jan 1, 2027? Bekim Sejdiu | Politics | 38% ▼ 36 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Indiana wins the 1st half Indiana wins 1st Half | College | 98% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will more than 900,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026? Above 900,000 units | Tennis | 29% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Will Diesel Price on September 7, 2026 be above $5.68? Above $5.68 | Everything Else | 96% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Will NZDUSD be Above 0.587 at 5pm ET on Sep 04? Above 0.587 | Everything Else | 29% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 44 |
| Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Surging Yes | Politics | 12% ▼ 18 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will Aaron Donald play in a Pro Football game in Week 1? Surging Aaron Donald | NFL | 35% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will People of Israel win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? People of Israel | Politics | 66% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.100? Above 4.100 | Everything Else | 65% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 12 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Hemery wins Calvin Hemery | Tennis | in 1 hours | 24% — |
| Hanwha Life Esports wins Hanwha Life Esports | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 46% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
| KT Wiz wins KT Wiz | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 54% — |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 84% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 2, 2026? Above $89.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 57% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 18 |
| San Diego wins San Diego | MLB | in 11 hours | 57% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 94.50 USD/Bbl on September 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $94.50 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 57% — |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 76% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 | Politics | in 2 days | 36% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will Don’t Look Down by Rod Wave have above 110000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week? Above 110K | Culture | in 4 days | 32% — |
| Will I Must Be Dreaming by Alabama Shakes have above 1600000 streams during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week? Above 1.6M | Culture | in 4 days | 80% — |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Sep 7, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 5 days | 16% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| KT Wiz wins KT Wiz · settles today | Everything Else | 54% — |
| Hanwha Life Esports wins Hanwha Life Esports · settles today | Everything Else | 46% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 2, 2026? Above $89.99 · settles today | Commodities | 57% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 14 days | Economy | 60% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 14 days | Economy | 40% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo before Jan 1, 2027? Bekim Sejdiu · settles in 128 days | Politics | 38% ▼ 36 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the margin of victory for Ed Markey in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary be at least 30%? Ed Markey, ≥30% · settles in 364 days | Politics | 36% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Jesper De Jong wins Jesper De Jong · | Tennis | 32% ▼ 24 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 797 days | Politics | 25% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 98.99 USD/Bbl on September 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $98.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 19% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 121 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 797 days | Everything Else | 15% — |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 271 days | Champions League | 14% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 302 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Rockstar Games release GTA VI Online to the public before 2027? GTA VI Online · settles in 121 days | Culture | 12% ▼ 6 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 797 days | Politics | 11% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Yunchaokete Bu wins Yunchaokete Bu · | Tennis | 10% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Runner Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 50 · settles in 12 days | Culture | 90% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev wins Daniil Medvedev · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Ksenia Zaytseva wins Ksenia Zaytseva · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Ludhiana Lion wins Ludhiana Lion · settles today | Everything Else | 93.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 87.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 2, 2026? Above $87.49 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.040? Above 4.040 · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 2, 2026? Above $86.99 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 15 million views? At least 15 million · settles in 6 days | Culture | 97.0% — |
| Will WILDCHILD by Alex Warren have above 14000000 streams during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week? Above 14M · settles in 4 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7574.9999 on Sep 2, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,575 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7569.9999 on Sep 2, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,570 or above · settles today | Markets | 95.0% — |