Edition of September 11, 2026 · built from 3,242 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 47% this morning. · ▲ 12 points overnight · settles in 112 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Tencent market share this week? Above 6.8% | Everything Else | 71% ▲ 61 7d: ▲ 7 |
| What will Donald Trump say during The Ingraham Angle on September 10, 2026? Midterm | Everything Else | 5% ▼ 76 |
| DeepSeek market share this week? Above 21.9% | Everything Else | 66% ▲ 49 7d: ▼ 41 |
| Will Crew Girl: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 14, 2026? Crew Girl: Season 1 | Culture | 4% ▼ 44 |
| 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations? NAZA | Culture | 83% ▲ 42 |
| Google market share this week? Surging Above 19.35% | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 38 7d: ▲ 9 |
| What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention? Rubio | Everything Else | 5% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027 | Everything Else | 84% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will Nebraska US Senate have the largest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Kansas US Senate and Nebraska US Senate? Nebraska US Senate | Politics | 50% ▲ 33 |
| Will Trump say "TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome" before Sep 14, 2026? TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Everything Else | 10% ▼ 33 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corentin Denolly wins Corentin Denolly | Tennis | in 3 hours | 60% — |
| G2 wins G2 | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 44% — |
| Frances Tiafoe wins Frances Tiafoe | Tennis | later today | 28% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7644.9999 on Sep 11, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,645 or above | Markets | later today | 55% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29229.99 at the end of Sep 11, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,230 or above | Markets | later today | 64% — |
| Will Trump say "Autopen / Auto Pen" before Sep 14, 2026? Autopen / Auto Pen | Everything Else | in 3 days | 28% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Practical Magic 2 Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 35 | Culture | in 3 days | 54% ▲ 5 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 14, 2026? Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1 | Culture | in 4 days | 60% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | in 5 days | 38% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | in 5 days | 62% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 10 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 14, 2026? Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 60% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Corentin Denolly wins Corentin Denolly · settles today | Tennis | 60% — |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 788 days | Politics | 60% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 5 days | Economy | 38% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 5 days | Economy | 62% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will Trump say "Autopen / Auto Pen" before Sep 14, 2026? Autopen / Auto Pen · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 28% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Frances Tiafoe wins Frances Tiafoe · settles today | Tennis | 28% — |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? You Can See Everything · settles in 132 days | Culture | 27% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 101.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 11, 2026? Above $101.99 · settles today | Commodities | 26% ▼ 20 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 788 days | Politics | 24% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 112 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| South Africa wins South Africa · settles today | Everything Else | 86% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 202 days | NFL | 14% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 788 days | Everything Else | 14% — |
| Will CDU receive at least 5% of valid second votes in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election? At least 5% · settles in 20 days | Politics | 88% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,346.76 · settles today | Commodities | 88% — |
| Will the United Kingdom’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -5.5% of GDP? Above -5.5% of GDP · settles in 228 days | Politics | 88% — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 293 days | NBA | 11% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Monzon wins Ignacio Monzon · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Opetaia J. wins Opetaia J. · settles tomorrow | Boxing | 93.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles in 4 days | Culture | 97.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Why Did I Get Married Again? be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 14, 2026? Why Did I Get Married Again? · settles in 4 days | Culture | 96.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Bad Bunny have above 24.5M daily views on Sep 11, 2026? Above 24.5M · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 98.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 11, 2026? Above $95.49 · settles today | Commodities | 95.0% — |
| Most popular AI this week? Tencent · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 93.5% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 11, 2026? Above $94.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7544.9999 on Sep 11, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,545 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.5% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28359.99 at the end of Sep 11, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 28,360 or above · settles today | Markets | 98.5% — |