Today’s Number
Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026?
Market-consensus odds put Before Dec 31, 2026 at 28% this morning. · ▼ 21 points overnight · settles in 466 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of September 21, 2026
Edition of September 21, 2026 · built from 5,177 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
28%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Scoring Team in Week 2: Buffalo Buffalo | NFL | 92% ▲ 60 7d: ▲ 60 |
| What will Dominos say during their next earnings call? Detroit | Everything Else | 84% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will it rain in Boston on Sep 21, 2026? Boston | News | 98% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 96.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 22, 2026? Above $96.99 | Commodities | 16% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will Bad Bunny have above 28.5M daily views at any point during September 14, 2026 - September 20, 2026? Above 28.5M | Everything Else | 3% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Will Kathy Hochul win Saratoga County? Saratoga | Everything Else | 40% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will Roy Cooper receive at least 74% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina? At least 74% | Politics | 42% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 35 |
| Will Sexyy Red be featured on Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album? Sexyy Red | Culture | 57% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Will David Crowley receive at least 86% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Dane County, Wisconsin? At least 86% | Politics | 44% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Grand Traverse County? Grand Traverse | Everything Else | 31% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 20 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GamerLegion wins GamerLegion | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 45% — |
| Solary wins Solary | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 44% — |
| Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 | Culture | in 5 hours | 85% ▲ 76 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 21, 2026? Above $94.49 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 50% ▼ 16 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 97.50 USD/Bbl on September 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $97.50 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 57% — |
| Los Angeles R wins by over 7.5 points? Los Angeles R wins by over 7.5 points | NFL | later today | 46% — |
| Will Why Did I Get Married Again? be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? Why Did I Get Married Again? | Culture | tomorrow | 40% ▲ 10 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.2 according to RealClearPolitics? 40.0 to 40.2 | Politics | in 4 days | 29% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Ole Miss wins Ole Miss | College | in 5 days | 42% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Yokohama DeNA BayStars wins Yokohama DeNA BayStars · settles today | Everything Else | 46% — |
| Los Angeles R wins by over 7.5 points? Los Angeles R wins by over 7.5 points · settles today | NFL | 46% — |
| Solary wins Solary · settles today | Everything Else | 44% — |
| Ole Miss wins Ole Miss · settles in 5 days | College | 42% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Will Why Did I Get Married Again? be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? Why Did I Get Married Again? · settles tomorrow | Culture | 40% ▲ 10 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 80 days | Economy | 68% — 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026? Exactly 3 · settles in 104 days | Economy | 28% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes · settles in 101 days | Economy | 76% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 778 days | Politics | 21% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Brian Jordan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 MD-05 House election? At least 3% · settles in 104 days | Politics | 17% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 21, 2026? Above $95.99 · settles today | Commodities | 16% ▼ 28 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 102 days | Everything Else | 16% — |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 101 days | Culture | 84% ▲ 15 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 778 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses? Rogers wins, Collins loses · settles in 43 days | Politics | 16% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles today | Culture | 85% ▲ 76 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 778 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 192 days | NFL | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 283 days | NBA | 11% — |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Ayumi Miyamoto wins Ayumi Miyamoto · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? Yes · settles in 4 days | WNBA | 93.5% — |
| Will it rain in Boston on Sep 21, 2026? Boston · settles tomorrow | News | 98.0% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will there be more than 10 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026? Above 10 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026? Above 5 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will it rain in Columbus on Sep 21, 2026? Columbus · settles tomorrow | News | 96.5% — |
| Will Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 21, 2026? Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles tomorrow | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 21, 2026? Above $89.49 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29709.99 at the end of Sep 21, 2026 at 10am EDT? 29,710 or above · settles today | Markets | 95.0% — |