Today’s Number
Will the gold close price be above 4185.99 USD/t.oz on October 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Market-consensus odds put Above $4185.99 at 36% this morning. · ▼ 50 points overnight · settles in 4 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of September 28, 2026
Edition of September 28, 2026 · built from 5,615 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
36%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Nolo become a Category 5 hurricane? Surging Category 5 or above | News | 64% ▲ 52 7d: ▲ 52 |
| Will Tie win Best R&B Collaboration or Duo/Group Performance at the Grammys? Tie | Culture | 50% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 47 |
| Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026? D+37 to D+39.9 | Politics | 9% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 34 |
| New York vs Minnesota First Round series winner: Minnesota wins Minnesota | WNBA | 42% ▼ 35 7d: ▼ 35 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4185.99 USD/t.oz on October 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Surging Above $4185.99 | Commodities | 36% ▼ 50 7d: ▼ 50 |
| Will A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards? A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint | Everything Else | 47% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 76-77° in Los Angeles on Sep 28, 2026? 76° to 77° | News | 14% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Will Alani Bankhead drop out of the 2026 Montana Senate race before Nov 3, 2026? Yes | Politics | 14% ▼ 36 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 83-84° in Phoenix on Sep 28, 2026? 83° to 84° | News | 59% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 35 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <72° in Minneapolis on Sep 28, 2026? 71° or below | News | 76% ▲ 38 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KT Rolster Challengers wins KT Rolster Challengers | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 58% — |
| Korea Republic wins Korea Republic | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 38% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 | Culture | in 5 hours | 82% ▲ 41 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,144.70 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 42% — |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.135 USD/MMBtu on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $3.135 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 30% ▼ 54 7d: ▼ 46 |
| PHI Eagles wins by over 6.5 points? PHI Eagles wins by over 6.5 points | NFL | later today | 42% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 38.2 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 38.2 | Politics | in 4 days | 24% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes | Politics | in 6 days | 24% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore by Taylor Swift have above 200000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week? Above 200K | Culture | in 6 days | 28% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 48 |
| Green Bay wins Green Bay | NFL | in 6 days | 62% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? Yes | Politics | in 7 days | 23% — |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Vit Kopriva wins Vit Kopriva · | Tennis | 43% — |
| Manchin Senate combo: Both lose? Both lose · settles in 36 days | Politics | 57% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026? Exactly 3 · settles in 97 days | Economy | 42% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 16 |
| KT Rolster Challengers wins KT Rolster Challengers · settles today | Everything Else | 58% — |
| Korea Republic wins Korea Republic · settles today | Everything Else | 38% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 185 days | Culture | 68% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 73 days | Economy | 30% ▼ 10 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Ruien Zhang wins Ruien Zhang · | Tennis | 24% — |
| Will Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 54 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms? Yes · settles in 126 days | Politics | 23% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 771 days | Politics | 21% — |
| Colombia wage growth minus inflation above 4.00 pp in 2027? Above 4.00 pp · settles in 140 days | Economy | 19% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 276 days | Culture | 82% — |
| Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 · settles today | Culture | 82% ▲ 41 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 772 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 95 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 185 days | NFL | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 846 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 276 days | NBA | 11% — |
| Will Taylor Swift have the top 4 songs on the Billboard 100 for the week of October 10, 2026? Exactly Yes · settles in 12 days | Culture | 10% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 60 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 98.6% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 12 |
| T1 Academy wins T1 Academy · settles today | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Full Game: over 17.5 points scored? Over 17.5 points · settles in 4 days | NFL | 95.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 28, 2026? Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 · settles today | Culture | 94.5% — 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Full Game: over 20.5 points scored? Over 20.5 points · settles in 4 days | NFL | 94.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026? Above $92.49 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 19 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026? Above $90.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% ▲ 11 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.78% on Sep 28, 2026? 4.79% or above · settles today | Economy | 95.5% — |
| Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.85% on Sep 30, 2026? 4.86% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 94.5% — |