Today’s Number
Will average gas prices be above $4.44?
Market-consensus odds put Above 4.44 at 44% this morning. · ▼ 43 points overnight · settles tomorrow · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of September 29, 2026
Edition of September 29, 2026 · built from 5,715 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
44%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Denver on Sep 29, 2026? Denver | News | 20% ▼ 57 7d: ▼ 57 |
| Top Chinese AI Company week of September 28th? Tencent | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 45 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will Disney+ App Downloads for September 2026 be above 115 ? Above 115 | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 62 7d: ▼ 62 |
| Will Trump officially rename AI before Oct 1, 2026? Before Oct 1, 2026 | Everything Else | 49% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Sep 27, 2026 and Oct 3, 2026? Above 1 | Politics | 94% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 43 |
| Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.90%? Above 4.90% | Everything Else | 70% ▲ 43 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.44? Surging Above 4.44 | Everything Else | 44% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 40 |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 32M daily views at any point during September 21, 2026 - September 27, 2026? Surging Above 32M | Culture | 2% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Oct 1, 2026? Before Oct 1, 2026 | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 19 |
| Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 23, 2026? Before Oct 23, 2026 | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 37 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper Rex wins Paper Rex | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 56% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Daniil Medvedev wins Daniil Medvedev | Tennis | in 5 hours | 66% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,139.78 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 60% — |
| Will Spain win on 2026-09-29? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 82% — |
| Atlanta wins by over 1.5 runs? Atlanta wins by over 1.5 runs | MLB | in 12 hours | 42% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| England wins by more than 1.5 goals? England wins by more than 1.5 goals | Everything Else | later today | 50% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30349.99 at the end of Sep 29, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 30,350 or above | Markets | later today | 50% — |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 20% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 13 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 38.2 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 38.2 | Politics | in 3 days | 22% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes | Politics | in 5 days | 24% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore by Taylor Swift have above 200000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week? Above 200K | Culture | in 5 days | 12% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 65 |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 | Culture | in 6 days | 82% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? Yes · settles in 94 days | Economy | 45% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Paper Rex wins Paper Rex · settles today | Everything Else | 56% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| ATP Hangzhou: Daniil Medvedev wins Daniil Medvedev · settles in 21 days | Tennis | 59% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 184 days | Culture | 68% — 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026? Above 3.8% · settles in 106 days | Economy | 26% ▼ 20 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Alevtina Ibragimova wins Alevtina Ibragimova · | Tennis | 24% — |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting? Above 4.25% · settles in 253 days | Economy | 77% — |
| Will Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 54 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms? Yes · settles in 125 days | Politics | 22% — 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 770 days | Politics | 21% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 72 days | Economy | 20% — 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 275 days | Culture | 82% — |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 82% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026? Yes · settles in 42 days | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 771 days | Everything Else | 17% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 94 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 184 days | NFL | 14% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 845 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore by Taylor Swift have above 200000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week? Above 200K · settles in 5 days | Culture | 12% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 65 |
| Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? North Carolina · settles in 186 days | Politics | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 275 days | NBA | 11% — |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? Yes · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 98.2% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 94.5% — |
| Full Game: over 17.5 points scored? Over 17.5 points · settles in 3 days | NFL | 96.0% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Jakub Nicod wins Jakub Nicod · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 30 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will there be at least 10 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Sep 27, 2026? At least 10 · settles in 5 days | Politics | 98.5% — |
| Will it rain in Phoenix on Sep 29, 2026? Phoenix · settles tomorrow | News | 94.5% — |
| Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Sep 27, 2026? At least 3 · settles in 5 days | Politics | 97.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 29, 2026? Above $89.49 · settles today | Commodities | 94.0% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will it rain in Minneapolis on Sep 29, 2026? Minneapolis · settles tomorrow | News | 94.0% — |