Edition of October 5, 2026 · built from 5,906 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Green Apron (3+ times) at 64% this morning. · ▼ 19 points overnight · settles in 38 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla report Above 300,000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? Above 300,000 | Everything Else | 46% ▼ 48 7d: ▼ 44 |
| No Touchdown: 1st Touchdown No Touchdown | NFL | 2% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Will it rain in Atlanta on Oct 5, 2026? Atlanta | News | 28% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 33 |
| Will Trump say "Crazy Nancy" before Jan 1, 2027? Crazy Nancy | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 53 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Oct 17, 2026 Choosin' Texas | Culture | 78% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Atlanta vs Los Angeles D Division Series Game Spread: Los Angeles D -1.5 games Los Angeles D -1.5 games | MLB | 31% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 19 |
| ATP Tokyo: Carlos Alcaraz wins Carlos Alcaraz | Tennis | 45% ▼ 27 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Dave Bronson receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election? At least 10% | Politics | 52% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 42 |
| Democratic trifecta in Minnesota? Minnesota | Everything Else | 48% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 33 |
| Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Sam Altman in Oct 2026? Sam Altman | Everything Else | 40% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 10 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akira Santillan wins Akira Santillan | Tennis | in 2 hours | 50% — |
| Will France win on 2026-10-05? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 66% — |
| France wins France | Everything Else | later today | 66% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7722.94 on Oct 5, 2026 at 4pm EDT? Above 7722.94 | Markets | later today | 46% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 10 |
| NO Saints wins by over 1.5 points? NO Saints wins by over 1.5 points | NFL | later today | 50% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will East of Eden: Limited Series be #2 US Netflix Show on Oct 5, 2026? East of Eden: Limited Series | Culture | tomorrow | 80% ▲ 21 7d: ▲ 58 |
| Will The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part be #2 US Netflix Movie on Oct 5, 2026? The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part | Culture | tomorrow | 83% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will England win on 2026-10-06? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 86% — |
| Spain wins Spain | Everything Else | tomorrow | 78% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 37.6 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 37.6 | Politics | in 4 days | 14% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.099 USD/MMBtu on October 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $3.099 | Commodities | in 4 days | 44% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 12 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Libertad wins Libertad · | Everything Else | 40% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Marie Bouzkova wins Marie Bouzkova · | Tennis | 36% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026? Above 3.8% · settles in 100 days | Economy | 36% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 8 |
| You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 96 · settles in 14 days | Culture | 64% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Jaume Munar wins Jaume Munar · | Tennis | 34% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Will How To Quit Smoking by Dominic Fike have above 1000000 streams during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week? Above 1M · settles in 13 days | Culture | 30% — 7d: ▼ 48 |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting? Above 4.25% · settles in 247 days | Economy | 77% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Spain wins Spain · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 78% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 54 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms? Yes · settles in 119 days | Politics | 20% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 765 days | Politics | 20% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 18% ▼ 20 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 765 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 88 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 269 days | NBA | 12% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Oct 2026? 0 · settles in 27 days | Politics | 12% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 238 days | Champions League | 10% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? Yes · settles in 3 days | Politics | 97.2% — |
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes · settles today | Politics | 98.0% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026? Above 15 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will UNABOMBER be Top US Netflix Movie on Oct 5, 2026? UNABOMBER · settles tomorrow | Culture | 96.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Argentina wins Argentina · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Notre Dame wins Notre Dame · settles in 6 days | College | 98.5% — |
| Will A Different World: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Oct 5, 2026? A Different World: Season 1 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 96.0% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 69 |
| Northwestern wins Northwestern · settles in 5 days | College | 98.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Oct 5, 2026? 5.15% or above · settles today | Economy | 98.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 5, 2026? Above $85.49 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 3 |