Edition of October 6, 2026 · built from 5,681 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put 5.4% or above at 71% this morning. · ▲ 26 points overnight · settles in 24 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Oct 17, 2026 Choosin' Texas | Culture | 17% ▼ 61 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will Choosin' Texas be #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Oct 17, 2026 Choosin' Texas | Culture | 82% ▲ 61 7d: ▲ 70 |
| ATP Beijing: Novak Djokovic wins Novak Djokovic | Tennis | 64% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will Conservative Party of Québec finish 4th in the 2026 Quebec general election? Conservative Party of Québec | Politics | 3% ▼ 41 7d: ▲ 6 |
| ATP Tokyo: Carlos Alcaraz wins Carlos Alcaraz | Tennis | 75% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the average U.S. price of a Starbucks Grande Strawberry Açaí Refresher for October 2026 be at least $5.08? At least $5.08 | Everything Else | 90% ▲ 39 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Diesel Price on October 31, 2026 be above $6.30? Above $6.30 | Everything Else | 30% ▼ 32 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the lot sold price of the Le Jardin des Tuileries by Claude Monet on Sotheby's be above $30000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? Above $30M | Everything Else | 4% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Chicago WS vs Cleveland Division Series winner: Cleveland wins Cleveland | MLB | 14% ▼ 24 7d: ▼ 43 |
| Will Dave Bronson receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election? At least 26% | Politics | 51% ▲ 34 7d: ▼ 1 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKSavingsBank BRION wins OKSavingsBank BRION | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 74% — |
| Novak Djokovic wins Novak Djokovic | Tennis | in 5 hours | 64% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,155.65 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 42% — |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 70% — |
| Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals? Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals | Everything Else | later today | 52% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 37.9 and 38.1 according to RealClearPolitics? 37.9 to 38.1 | Politics | in 3 days | 24% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on October 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $99.99 | Commodities | in 3 days | 41% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
| San Francisco wins San Francisco | NFL | in 6 days | 42% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 | Culture | in 6 days | 66% — |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Oct 12, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 6 days | 31% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals? Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals · settles today | Everything Else | 52% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.199 USD/MMBtu on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $3.199 · settles in 24 days | Commodities | 46% — |
| Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? Yes · settles in 107 days | Economy | 56% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on October 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $99.99 · settles in 4 days | Commodities | 41% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Kyrian Jacquet wins Kyrian Jacquet · | Tennis | 60% — |
| Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election? 2 · settles in 160 days | Politics | 39% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 11 |
| OKSavingsBank BRION wins OKSavingsBank BRION · settles today | Everything Else | 74% — |
| Naomi Osaka wins Naomi Osaka · | Tennis | 80% — |
| Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Oct 17, 2026 Choosin' Texas · settles in 15 days | Culture | 17% ▼ 61 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 84% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Oct 2026? 0 · settles in 26 days | Politics | 16% ▲ 5 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 764 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes · settles in 177 days | Culture | 16% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 87 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 1 |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 268 days | NBA | 12% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 87 days | Economy | 12% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 237 days | Champions League | 10% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will How To Quit Smoking by Dominic Fike have above 1000000 streams during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week? Above 1M · settles in 12 days | Culture | 10% ▼ 20 7d: ▼ 68 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026? Above 15 · settles today | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Argentina wins Argentina · settles today | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Mattia Nannelli wins Mattia Nannelli · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Lucie Nguyen Tan wins Lucie Nguyen Tan · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 6, 2026? Above $85.49 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4096 USD/t.oz on October 06, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4096 · settles today | Commodities | 95.0% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Oct 6, 2026? 5.2% or above · settles today | Economy | 98.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7739.9999 on Oct 6, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,740 or above · settles today | Markets | 98.0% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7729.9999 on Oct 6, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,730 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% on Oct 6, 2026? 5.22% or above · settles today | Economy | 97.5% — |