Edition of October 16, 2026 · built from 2,645 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Republicans, 51+ pts at 48% this morning. · ▲ 37 points overnight · settles in 383 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Thriston Lawrence finishes top 20 Thriston Lawrence | Everything Else | 76% ▲ 52 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will it rain in Dallas on Oct 16, 2026? Dallas | News | 16% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 40 |
| Thriston Lawrence finishes top 10 Thriston Lawrence | Everything Else | 52% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Treg Taylor drop out of the 2026 Alaska Governor race before Nov 3, 2026? Surging Yes | Culture | 16% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 42 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° in Houston on Oct 16, 2026? 79° to 80° | News | 71% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 56-57° in Oklahoma City on Oct 16, 2026? 56° to 57° | News | 42% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 5th District House election be at least 51 percentage points? Surging Republicans, 51+ pts | Politics | 48% ▲ 37 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <60° in Chicago on Oct 16, 2026? 59° or below | News | 98% ▲ 28 |
| Thriston Lawrence finishes top 5 Thriston Lawrence | Everything Else | 38% ▲ 32 |
| Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes | Everything Else | 62% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 41 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,189.13 | Commodities | within the hour | 36% — |
| Liquid wins Liquid | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 70% — |
| Ann Li wins Ann Li | Tennis | in 5 hours | 22% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 16, 2026? Above $95.49 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 52% — |
| West Indies wins West Indies | Everything Else | tomorrow | 34% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Jeremiyah Love: 1+ touchdowns Jeremiyah Love: 1+ | NFL | in 3 days | 38% ▲ 6 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Whalefall Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 72 | Culture | in 3 days | 24% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 42 | Culture | in 3 days | 81% — |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-16? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 days | 44% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff's Senate margin minus Keisha Lance Bottoms's governor margin be between 9 and 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? Ossoff by 9-12 · settles in 47 days | Politics | 50% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 16 |
| Rebeka Masarova wins Rebeka Masarova · | Tennis | 40% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,189.13 · settles today | Commodities | 36% — |
| Will Rob Sand's governor margin minus Josh Turek's Senate margin be between 3 and 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? Sand by 3-6 · settles in 53 days | Politics | 34% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Liquid wins Liquid · settles today | Everything Else | 70% — |
| Whalefall Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 72 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 24% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| WTI Oil price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $95.44 · settles today | Commodities | 78% — |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 78% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 22% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 55 days | Economy | 78% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will "Housewife" rank No. 1–2 on Billboard Hot 100? Rank 1 to 2 · settles in 15 days | Culture | 20% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 77 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 754 days | Everything Else | 15% — |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 16 days | MLB | 15% ▼ 7 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 13 days | Economy | 86% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Maria Berlanga Bandera wins Maria Berlanga Bandera · | Tennis | 12% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the CIF Rotterdam 88.5% APT price (SMM-WU-APT-003) be above $2,000/MTU on Dec 17, 2026? Above $2,000/MTU · settles in 62 days | Everything Else | 88% — |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 227 days | Champions League | 10% — |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 258 days | Culture | 10% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriela Dabrowski / Luisa Stefani wins Gabriela Dabrowski / Luisa Stefani · settles today | Tennis | 94.0% — |
| Alisa Oktiabreva wins Alisa Oktiabreva · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will the maximum temperature be <60° in Chicago on Oct 16, 2026? 59° or below · settles tomorrow | News | 97.5% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.2900? Above 4.2900 · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — |
| Will the Index.US30/USD be at least $51,750 at October 16, 2026 at 4pm ET? At least $51,750 · settles today | Markets | 95.0% — |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 18 million views? At least 18 million · settles in 4 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will the Index.US30/USD be at least $51,775 at October 16, 2026 at 4pm ET? At least $51,775 · settles today | Markets | 95.0% — |
| Will it rain in Boston on Oct 16, 2026? Boston · settles tomorrow | News | 97.0% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 25 million views? At least 25 million · settles in 4 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 16, 2026? Above $92.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.0% — |