Edition of October 27, 2026 · built from 3,341 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Greg Abbott, 6-8% at 33% this morning. · ▲ 24 points overnight · settles in 372 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Oklahoma City on Oct 27, 2026? Oklahoma City | News | 6% ▼ 68 7d: ▼ 68 |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 22.0% Above 22.0% | Everything Else | 8% ▼ 57 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <60° in New York on Oct 27, 2026? 59° or below | News | 4% ▼ 52 |
| Will Luh Leakyz Vol. 1 by Yeat have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 23, 2026 - October 29, 2026 tracking week? Above 15K | Culture | 62% ▲ 44 7d: ▼ 39 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 57-58° in Boston on Oct 27, 2026? 57° to 58° | News | 94% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Google Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 11.4% Above 11.4% | Everything Else | 26% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >63° in Dallas on Oct 27, 2026? 64° or above | News | 80% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 43 |
| Will Luh Leakyz Vol. 1 by Yeat have above 18000000 streams during the October 23, 2026 - October 29, 2026 tracking week? Above 18M | Culture | 42% ▲ 33 |
| Samsung Lions vs Kia Tigers: First Inning Run? Yes | Sports | 24% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 40 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.98% by Oct 30, 2026? 4.97% or below | Economy | 86% ▲ 39 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $3,994.93 | Commodities | within the hour | 60% — |
| New Zealand wins New Zealand | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 22% ▼ 21 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Niklas Waldner wins Niklas Waldner | Tennis | in 4 hours | 43% — |
| Sri Lanka wins Sri Lanka | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 48% — |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 74% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 103.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 27, 2026? Above $103.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 20% — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes | Politics | later today | 28% — |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes | Politics | later today | 29% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.3 and 38.5 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.3 to 38.5 | Politics | in 3 days | 28% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 days | 12% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Luh Leakyz Vol. 1 by Yeat have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 23, 2026 - October 29, 2026 tracking week? Above 15K | Culture | in 5 days | 62% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 39 |
| New England wins by over 7.5 points? New England wins by over 7.5 points | NFL | in 6 days | 46% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Sri Lanka wins Sri Lanka · settles today | Everything Else | 48% — |
| Antonia Ruzic wins Antonia Ruzic · | Tennis | 46% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $3,994.93 · settles today | Commodities | 60% — |
| Will Luh Leakyz Vol. 1 by Yeat have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 23, 2026 - October 29, 2026 tracking week? Above 15K · settles in 5 days | Culture | 62% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 39 |
| Will Nathan Fielder win Best Director at the Oscars? Nathan Fielder · settles in 430 days | Culture | 34% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes · settles in 44 days | Economy | 76% — 7d: ▼ 5 |
| New Zealand wins New Zealand · settles today | Everything Else | 22% ▼ 21 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 44 days | Economy | 22% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 247 days | NBA | 22% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 103.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 27, 2026? Above $103.99 · settles today | Commodities | 20% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 743 days | Politics | 19% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 66 days | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will No one become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No one · settles in 365 days | Politics | 18% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 743 days | Everything Else | 17% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the margin of victory for Roy Cooper in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be between 12% and 14%? Roy Cooper, 12-14% · settles in 372 days | Politics | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 216 days | Champions League | 12% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 743 days | Politics | 12% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Jasmine Paolini wins Jasmine Paolini · | Tennis | 12% ▼ 15 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 247 days | Culture | 11% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles tomorrow | Economy | 93.6% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 98.2% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? Yes · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 97.2% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 16 |
| The Only Living Pickpocket in New York Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 85 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 27, 2026? Above $99.49 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% — |
| Chenting Zhu wins Chenting Zhu · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Sergey Petrov wins Sergey Petrov · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| The Mongoose Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 15 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 94.0% — |
| Will the maximum temperature be 57-58° in Boston on Oct 27, 2026? 57° to 58° · settles tomorrow | News | 94.0% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 107 USD/Bbl on October 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $107 · settles today | Commodities | 97.0% — |