Today’s Number
Chris Rodriguez Jr.: 30+ rushing yards
Market-consensus odds put Chris Rodriguez Jr.: 30+ at 55% this morning. · ▲ 9 points overnight · settles in 3 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of October 30, 2026
Edition of October 30, 2026 · built from 1,874 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
55%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| What will JD Vance say during Fraud Task Force Press Conference in St. Cloud, Minnesota originally scheduled for October 30, 2026? Taxpayer | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 56 7d: ▼ 56 |
| Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? Surging Yes | UFC | 3% ▼ 42 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Yes | Everything Else | 19% ▼ 41 7d: ▼ 41 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.18? Above 4.18 | Everything Else | 90% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will it rain in Dallas on Oct 30, 2026? Dallas | News | 44% ▼ 32 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <51° in Seattle on Oct 30, 2026? 50° or below | News | 78% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 43 |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Yes | Everything Else | 10% ▼ 20 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 22 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <71° in Las Vegas on Oct 30, 2026? 70° or below | News | 60% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Productivity at his Dec 2026 press conference? Productivity | Economy | 78% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $3,997.40 | Commodities | within the hour | 54% — |
| Pranav Karthik wins Pranav Karthik | Tennis | in 1 hours | 17% — |
| Goyang Skygunners wins Goyang Skygunners | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 64% — |
| Benoit Torcq wins Benoit Torcq | Tennis | in 5 hours | 28% — |
| Vitality wins Vitality | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 82% — |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-30? Yes | Everything Else | in 9 hours | 76% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 102.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 30, 2026? Above $102.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 62% — |
| Will Muse by John Legend have above 17000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 23, 2026 - October 29, 2026 tracking week? Above 17K | Culture | in 2 days | 32% — |
| Will Surviving Hurricane Otis be Top US Netflix Movie on Nov 2, 2026? Surviving Hurricane Otis | Culture | in 4 days | 78% — |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes | Politics | in 5 days | 50% ▼ 21 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes | Politics | in 5 days | 63% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 11 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $3,997.40 · settles today | Commodities | 54% — |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 82 · settles in 24 days | Culture | 43% — |
| Emilio Camacho wins Emilio Camacho · | Tennis | 59% ▲ 54 7d: ▲ 54 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes · | Politics | 40% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 102.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 30, 2026? Above $102.99 · settles today | Commodities | 62% — |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027? Yes · settles in 63 days | Economy | 66% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Muse by John Legend have above 17000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 23, 2026 - October 29, 2026 tracking week? Above 17K · settles in 2 days | Culture | 32% — |
| Diana Shnaider wins Diana Shnaider · | Tennis | 30% — |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 244 days | NBA | 22% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will James Talarico's Texas Senate margin minus Nithya Raman's LA mayoral margin be between 10 and 15 points? Talarico by 10-15 · settles in 71 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Vitality wins Vitality · settles today | Everything Else | 82% — |
| What will JD Vance say during Fraud Task Force Press Conference in St. Cloud, Minnesota originally scheduled for October 30, 2026? Taxpayer · settles in 14 days | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 56 7d: ▼ 56 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 63 days | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 740 days | Everything Else | 17% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Nithya Raman's LA mayoral margin minus James Talarico's Texas Senate margin be between 5 and 10 points? Raman by 5-10 · settles in 71 days | Politics | 15% — |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 244 days | Culture | 13% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 740 days | Politics | 13% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 213 days | Champions League | 12% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 93.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 98.2% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes · settles in 5 days | Politics | 95.4% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat? Yes · settles in 5 days | Politics | 96.7% — |
| Daria Egorova wins Daria Egorova · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Aya El Sayed wins Aya El Sayed · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Will it rain in Seattle on Oct 30, 2026? Seattle · settles tomorrow | News | 98.5% — |
| Will it rain in Oklahoma City on Oct 30, 2026? Oklahoma City · settles tomorrow | News | 95.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 30, 2026? Above $99.99 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7604.9999 on Oct 30, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,605 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.0% — |