Today’s Number
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?
Market-consensus odds put this at 89% this morning. · ▲ 24 points overnight · settles in 62 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of October 31, 2026
Edition of October 31, 2026 · built from 1,473 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
89%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Albuquerque on Oct 31, 2026? Albuquerque | News | 24% ▼ 63 7d: ▼ 63 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <77° in Austin on Oct 31, 2026? 76° or below | News | 8% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027? Surging Yes | Economy | 89% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Main Race Fastest Pit Stop: Red Bull Racing Red Bull Racing | F1 | 58% ▲ 38 |
| Jonah Coleman: 2+ receptions Jonah Coleman: 2+ | NFL | 80% ▲ 21 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° on Oct 31, 2026? 52° to 53° | News | 5% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° in San Francisco on Oct 31, 2026? 66° to 67° | News | 38% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 16 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? Yes | Everything Else | 42% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 103.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 2, 2026? Above $103.99 | Commodities | 39% ▼ 17 |
| Jonah Coleman: 11+ rushing attempts Jonah Coleman: 11+ | NFL | 63% ▲ 13 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yu Hsiou Hsu wins Yu Hsiou Hsu | Tennis | within the hour | 57% — |
| Aristarkh Safonov wins Aristarkh Safonov | Tennis | in 3 hours | 40% — |
| Vitality wins Vitality | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 30% — |
| Nemiga wins Nemiga | Everything Else | in 6 hours | 28% — |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 34% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 102.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 2, 2026? Above $102.99 | Commodities | in 2 days | 54% — |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes | Politics | in 4 days | 48% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.4 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.2 to 38.4 | Politics | in 6 days | 18% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.899 USD/MMBtu on November 06, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Above $2.899 | Commodities | in 7 days | 44% — |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.899 USD/MMBtu on November 06, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Above $2.899 · settles in 7 days | Commodities | 44% — |
| Yu Hsiou Hsu wins Yu Hsiou Hsu · settles today | Tennis | 57% — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes · | Politics | 42% — 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Aristarkh Safonov wins Aristarkh Safonov · settles today | Tennis | 40% — |
| Vitality wins Vitality · settles today | Everything Else | 30% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes · settles in 89 days | Economy | 72% ▲ 17 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Alter Ego wins Alter Ego · settles today | Everything Else | 78% — |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 243 days | NBA | 22% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.4 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.2 to 38.4 · settles in 6 days | Politics | 18% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 62 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 739 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Nov 2, 2026? Above $99.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 86% — |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 243 days | Culture | 14% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 212 days | Champions League | 14% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 739 days | Politics | 12% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 94.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes · settles today | Everything Else | 99.2% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Yes · settles in 4 days | Politics | 93.0% — 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes · settles in 4 days | Politics | 96.3% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Rafael Espinoza wins Rafael Espinoza · settles today | Boxing | 94.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Kyoka Okamura wins Kyoka Okamura · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Will it rain in Phoenix on Oct 31, 2026? Phoenix · settles tomorrow | News | 94.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 98.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 2, 2026? Above $98.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 93.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.49 USD/Bbl on Nov 2, 2026? Above $95.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 97.5% — |
| Will the minimum temperature be >44° in Minneapolis on Oct 31, 2026? 45° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 96.0% — |