Edition of July 16, 2026 · built from 8,684 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 9:31 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Before Jan 1, 2028 at 64% this morning. · ▼ 5 points since this morning · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Team Yandex win map 2 in the Team Spirit vs. Team Yandex match? Team Yandex | Sports | 96% ▲ 40 |
| Will Alex Smalley lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship? Alex Smalley | Golf | 1% ▼ 26 |
| The Open Championship: Will Patrick Reed make the cut? Patrick Reed | Golf | 41% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will the lowest round score of Round 1 be under 63.5? Under 63.5 | Golf | 23% ▼ 27 |
| Will the high temp in NYC be <89° on Jul 16, 2026? 88° or below | News | 67% ▲ 22 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will there be 6+ bogey-free rounds in the The Open Championship? 6+ Bogey-Free Rounds | Golf | 50% ▼ 31 |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? Above 15 | Everything Else | 58% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 27 |
| The Open Championship: Will Kristoffer Reitan finish top 10? Kristoffer Reitan | Golf | 12% ▼ 23 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Cameron Young beat Bryson DeChambeau in the The Open Championship? Cameron Young beats Bryson DeChambeau in the full tournament | Golf | 40% ▼ 24 7d: ▼ 19 |
| Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Jul 2026? Yes | Everything Else | 58% ▼ 20 7d: ▲ 14 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 15 days | Culture | 50% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 16, 2026? Above $79.49 · settles today | Commodities | 52% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 110 days | Politics | 52% — 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will The Real Me by Future have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? Above 140K · settles in 3 days | Culture | 54% ▼ 28 7d: ▼ 26 |
| The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 42% ▼ 27 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 3 days | World Cup | 58% — 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 3 days | World Cup | 42% — 7d: ▲ 22 |
| What will be the exact finishing order for the final four teams in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup? 1: Spain / 2: Argentina / 3: France / 4: England · settles in 4 days | World Cup | 38% — 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 145 days | Economy | 32% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 · settles in 169 days | Everything Else | 30% — 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? Troy Jackson · settles in 23 days | Politics | 76% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 167 days | Everything Else | 24% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the The Open Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles in 3 days | Golf | 21% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 844 days | Everything Else | 21% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 844 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 167 days | Economy | 13% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 844 days | Politics | 12% — |
| Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? Before October · settles in 169 days | Everything Else | 12% — 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7569.9999 on Jul 16, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,570 or above · settles today | Markets | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will all teams collectively score at least 300 goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup? 300+ goals · settles in 4 days | World Cup | 93.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 26 |
| How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season? At least 1 · settles in 4 days | World Cup | 93.5% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 91 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 96.5% — |
| Best AI this week Claude · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Ellie be eliminated from Love Island UK S13 before Jul 18, 2026? Ellie · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 88 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 77.99 USD/Bbl on July 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $77.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 98.0% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 79.99 USD/Bbl on July 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $79.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 76 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 16, 2026? 4.45% or above · settles today | Economy | 98.5% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28799.99 at the end of Jul 16, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 28,800 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.5% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.09% on Jul 16, 2026? 4.1% or above · settles today | Economy | 95.5% — |