Edition of July 26, 2026 · built from 9,019 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 20K at 18% this morning. · ▼ 46 points overnight · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will average gas prices be above $4.110? Above 4.110 | Everything Else | 27% ▼ 59 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will Jon Ossoff be the top ActBlue fundraiser on July 31 at 10:00 AM ET? Surging Jon Ossoff | Everything Else | 8% ▼ 70 7d: ▼ 23 |
| What will any host or reporter say during ABC World News Tonight? Israel / Israeli | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 57 |
| What will Ferrari N.V. say during their next earnings call? Luce | Everything Else | 34% ▼ 62 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 8, 2026 Surging Choosin' Texas | Culture | 44% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 45 |
| What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call? Surging Shapiro | Everything Else | 81% ▲ 59 7d: ▲ 59 |
| Will APOP by Tyla have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 20K | Culture | 18% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 69 |
| Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 330ㅤ? Above 330ㅤ | Everything Else | 52% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 28 |
| #2 Global Netflix Movie on Jul 27, 2026? Surging A Toxic Love Story | Culture | 93% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 68 |
| What will Dominos say during their next earnings call? Insurance | Everything Else | 32% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 5 days | Culture | 51% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Jackson Koivun win the 3M Open? Jackson Koivun · settled | Golf | 55% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 52 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 100 days | Politics | 62% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Lucas Herbert win the LIV Golf United Kingdom? Lucas Herbert · settled | Everything Else | 64% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 60 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? 32,000 or above · settles in 158 days | Markets | 34% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 · settles in 159 days | Everything Else | 31% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 16 days | Politics | 72% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 8 |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0 · settles in 3 days | Economy | 26% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 158 days | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 340 days | NBA | 22% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 3 days | Economy | 79% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 835 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 835 days | Everything Else | 20% — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 3 days | Economy | 20% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 75 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 20% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 133 days | Sports | 82% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m? Yes · settles today | Culture | 83% — |
| Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026? Ariana Grande · settles in 6 days | Culture | 87% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 835 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Philadelphia win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals? Philadelphia · settles in 370 days | NBA | 12% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 99.4% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? Yes · settles tomorrow | Politics | 96.2% — |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026? Yes · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 96.8% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Top US Netflix Show on Jul 27, 2026? The Hawk: Season 1 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 96.5% — 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026? 0 · settles in 6 days | Politics | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 65 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 95.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Will Tristan BERARD win the BERARD vs Affolter: M15 Strasbourg Round of 32 match? Tristan BERARD · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Will Luke Cripps win the Jusuf vs Cripps: M15 Bali Round of 32 match? Luke Cripps · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will the copper close price be above 5.39 USD/Lbs on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $5.39 · settles in 6 days | Commodities | 97.5% — |
| Will the copper close price be above 5.80 USD/Lbs on July 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $5.80 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 98.5% — |