Edition of August 3, 2026

Edition of August 3, 2026 · built from 7,678 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.

63%

Today’s Number

Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be at least 2.5°C?

Market-consensus odds put At least 2.5°C at 63% this morning. · ▲ 42 points overnight · settles in 245 days · on unusually heavy volume

Today’s move is bigger than 96% of this question’s daily moves — unusual for this market, not just large in the abstract.
Has traded between 8% and 63% over 27 tracked days — today is its high.
Buyers and sellers are 46 points apart — a thin market, so read this number as a range, not a point.

What changed

What Moved

Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.

Question		Odds
Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 18 million views? Surging At least 18 million	Culture	90% ▲ 79 7d: ▲ 88
Will Ariana Grande have above 24M daily views at any point during August 2026? Surging Above 24M	Everything Else	8% ▼ 58 7d: ▼ 4
Will Bad Bunny have above 30M daily views at any point during August 2026? Surging Above 30M	Everything Else	96% ▲ 64 7d: ▲ 63
Will the high temp in Philadelphia be >87° on Aug 3, 2026? 88° or above	News	57% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 43
Will John Thune vote for Todd Blanche? Surging John Thune	Everything Else	92% ▲ 39
Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 3.5%? Above 3.5%	Economy	65% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 38
Will CJ Abrams be the National League Player of the Month for July? CJ Abrams	MLB	56% ▼ 38 7d: ▲ 33
Will Todd Blanche's nomination be withdrawn before Sep 1, 2026? Surging Before Sep 1, 2026	Everything Else	2% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34
Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be at least 2.5°C? Surging At least 2.5°C	Everything Else	63% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 52
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 25 million views? Surging At least 25 million	Culture	84% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 56

What to watch next

What to Watch Next

Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.

Question		Resolves	Odds
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? Yes	Everything Else	in 7 hours	84% —
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 3, 2026? Above $80.49	Commodities	in 9 hours	46% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 42
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 84 USD/Bbl on August 03, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $84	Commodities	in 12 hours	55% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will Michael Zheng win the Zheng vs Kecmanovic: Round Of 128 match? Michael Zheng	Tennis	later today	60% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? Yes	Politics	later today	86% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1
Will Alexandra Eala win the Pegula vs Eala: Final match? Alexandra Eala	Tennis	later today	20% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18
Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026? Above 60	Everything Else	tomorrow	80% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 68
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? Yes	Everything Else	tomorrow	20% —
Will Drew Campbell be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 7, 2026? Drew Campbell	Everything Else	in 4 days	62% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 31
Will the President's approval rating be below 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 39.2	Politics	in 4 days	46% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 17
Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Before Aug 8, 2026	Politics	in 5 days	38% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 29
Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 320000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 320K	Culture	in 6 days	30% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 44

Still open

Up in the Air

The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.

Question		Odds
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 3, 2026? Above $80.49 · settles today	Commodities	46% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 42
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m? Yes ·	Culture	42% —
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 44 days	Economy	41% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 14
Will Michael Zheng win the Zheng vs Kecmanovic: Round Of 128 match? Michael Zheng · settles today	Tennis	60% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40
Where will Vinicius Junior go next? Arsenal · settles in 60 days	Everything Else	40% ▼ 8 7d: ▲ 16
Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the Oscars? Matt Damon · settles in 515 days	Culture	40% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 2
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 8 days	Politics	62% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 11
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 92 days	Politics	64% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes · settles in 87 days	Economy	66% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 28
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 150 days	Everything Else	26% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 7
Will core CPI inflation exceed headline CPI inflation in July 2026? In July 2026 · settles in 9 days	Economy	25% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 24
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 827 days	Politics	21% —
Will Alexandra Eala win the Pegula vs Eala: Final match? Alexandra Eala · settles today	Tennis	20% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 150 days	Everything Else	20% — 7d: ▼ 3
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 827 days	Everything Else	19% —
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 90 · settles in 7 days	Culture	84% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 12
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 125 days	Sports	84% — 7d: ▲ 1
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? Yes · settles in 59 days	Sports	14% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 6
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 827 days	Politics	12% —

Basically Decided

Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.

Question		Likelihood
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 89 · settles today	Culture	96.5% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 15
Will Saki TANGE win the Motta vs TANGE: M15 Astana Round of 32 match? Saki TANGE · settles today	Tennis	96.0% —
Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026? Above 50 · settles tomorrow	Everything Else	94.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 66
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? Yes · settles today	Politics	95.2% ▲ 1
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 3 days	Everything Else	97.8% ▲ 1
Will Noah Regas Luis win the Regas Luis vs Ganta: M25+H Tauste Round of 16 match? Noah Regas Luis · settles today	Tennis	98.0% —
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 76.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 3, 2026? Above $76.49 · settles today	Commodities	96.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 1
Will The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 3, 2026? The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare · settles tomorrow	Culture	98.5% —
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 76.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 3, 2026? Above $76.99 · settles today	Commodities	93.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 4
Will the S&P 500 be above 7384.9999 on Aug 3, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,385 or above · settles today	Markets	98.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 9