Edition of August 5, 2026 · built from 6,297 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Europe at 52% this morning. · ▲ 28 points overnight · settles in 148 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County? Surging Macomb | Politics | 2% ▼ 84 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.6 before Aug 8, 2026? Surging Before Aug 8, 2026 | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 68 7d: ▼ 63 |
| Will The Outlaw Cherie Lee & Other Western Tales by Shaboozey have above 35000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 35K | Culture | 70% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| West Indies vs Pakistan match: Pakistan wins Pakistan | Sports | 88% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 21 |
| Ice Cream Man Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 25 | Culture | 83% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Will the margin of victory for William Lawrence in the 2026 MI-07 Democratic primary be at least 12%? Surging William Lawrence, ≥12% | Politics | 98% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Will Ariana Grande have above 22M daily views at any point during August 3, 2026 - August 9, 2026? Above 22M | Everything Else | 52% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4104.99 USD/t.oz on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4104.99 | Commodities | 74% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 47 |
| What will eBay say during their next earnings call? Surging Goldin | Everything Else | 90% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will Drew Campbell be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 7, 2026? Surging Drew Campbell | Everything Else | 36% ▼ 25 7d: ▲ 4 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 75.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 5, 2026? Above $75.49 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 62% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Los Angeles D vs Chicago C Winner? Los Angeles D | MLB | later today | 48% ▼ 2 |
| West Indies vs Pakistan match: West Indies wins West Indies | Sports | in 2 days | 12% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will Drew Campbell be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 7, 2026? Drew Campbell | Everything Else | in 2 days | 36% ▼ 25 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 39.2 | Politics | in 2 days | 72% ▼ 13 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $78.99 | Commodities | in 2 days | 56% ▲ 5 7d: ▼ 19 |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 310000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 310K | Culture | in 4 days | 51% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia before Sep 1, 2026? Before Sep 1, 2026 | Everything Else | in 4 days | 26% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Ice Cream Man Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 30 | Culture | in 5 days | 42% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Aug 10, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 5 days | 56% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Yes | Politics | in 6 days | 85% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? Yes | Economy | in 7 days | 30% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 42 days | Economy | 51% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Ice Cream Man Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 30 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 42% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026? Yes · settles in 149 days | Politics | 40% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 75.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 5, 2026? Above $75.49 · settles today | Commodities | 62% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Where will Vinicius Junior go next? Arsenal · settles in 58 days | Everything Else | 36% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 320000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 320K · settles in 4 days | Culture | 24% ▼ 14 7d: ▼ 50 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be below 73.00 USD/Bbl on Aug 7, 2026? Below $73.00 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 23% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 825 days | Politics | 21% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 825 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Dmytro Vterkovskiy win the Bennani vs Vterkovskiy: M25 Kursumlijska Banja Round of 32 match? Dmytro Vterkovskiy · settles today | Tennis | 18% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 148 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 123 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? Yes · settles in 57 days | Sports | 14% — 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028? Iowa · settles in 612 days | Politics | 14% — 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Tristan Suarez wins by more than 1.5 goals? Tristan Suarez wins by more than 1.5 goals · | Everything Else | 88% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 80 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 825 days | Politics | 12% — |
| West Indies vs Pakistan match: West Indies wins West Indies · settles in 2 days | Sports | 12% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes · | Economy | 12% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? Yes · settles in 5 days | Politics | 94.0% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Guemes vs Tristan Suarez Winner? Tristan Suarez · settles today | Sports | 95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 66 |
| Will Vito Dell'elba win the Dell'elba vs Papoe: M15 Curtea de Arges Round of 32 match? Vito Dell'elba · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 280000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 280K · settles in 4 days | Culture | 97.5% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Ice Cream Man Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 20 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 96.5% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Aug 2, 2026? At least 2 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 93.5% ▼ 2 |
| Best AI this week Claude · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 72.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 5, 2026? Above $72.49 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 72.99 USD/Bbl on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $72.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 93.5% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.12% on Aug 5, 2026? 4.13% or above · settles today | Economy | 96.5% — |