Edition of August 10, 2026 · built from 6,776 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Humanoid at 43% this morning. · ▼ 20 points overnight · settles in 143 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 311ㅤ? Surging Above 311ㅤ | Everything Else | 28% ▼ 58 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Will it be confirmed that Jennifer Balkcom is the NC-11 Republican nominee on Aug 11, 2026? Jennifer Balkcom | Politics | 76% ▲ 49 7d: ▲ 49 |
| Will the average U.S. price of Burger King 8-piece Chicken Nuggets for August 2026 be at least $3.48? At least $3.48 | Everything Else | 42% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 44 |
| What will Klarna Group plc say during their next earnings call? Surging JP Morgan Payment | Everything Else | 78% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 70 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth for August be above $750 billion? Above $750 billion | Everything Else | 75% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will the Russell 2000 Index be at least $3,050 in August 2026? At least $3,050 | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 35 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Krieschow vs Mainz Winner? Reg Time: Mainz | Sports | 88% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| What will Home Depot say during their next earnings call? Tailwind | Everything Else | 66% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Bahlinger SC vs Magdeburg: Magdeburg To Advance Magdeburg advances | Sports | 88% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will Glen Powell be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? Glen Powell | Culture | 51% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 28 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 42% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 10, 2026? Above $78.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 55% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will Rafael Jodar win the Jodar vs Fils: Quarterfinal match? Rafael Jodar | Tennis | in 10 hours | 54% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4347 USD/t.oz on August 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4347 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 49% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes | Politics | later today | 62% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes | Politics | later today | 70% — |
| Will the high temp in LA be 80-81° in Los Angeles on Aug 10, 2026? 80° to 81° | News | tomorrow | 34% — |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 36% — |
| Will Chuk Anyanwu be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 14, 2026? Chuk Anyanwu | Everything Else | in 4 days | 43% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.1 and 39.3 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 to 39.3 | Politics | in 4 days | 24% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Ian Machado Garry win the Makhachev vs Garry professional MMA fight scheduled for Aug 15, 2026? Ian Machado Garry | UFC | in 6 days | 26% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 45000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 45K | Culture | in 6 days | 40% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 26 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the gold close price be above 4347 USD/t.oz on August 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4347 · settles today | Commodities | 49% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes · settles in 80 days | Economy | 48% — 7d: ▼ 17 |
| Will Rafael Jodar win the Jodar vs Fils: Quarterfinal match? Rafael Jodar · settles today | Tennis | 54% — |
| Will Darline Graham finish 1st in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 366 days | Politics | 57% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 27 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 144 days | Politics | 40% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 820 days | Politics | 60% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 37 days | Economy | 66% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 58 days | Everything Else | 73% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will Ian Machado Garry win the Makhachev vs Garry professional MMA fight scheduled for Aug 15, 2026? Ian Machado Garry · settles in 6 days | UFC | 26% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 77.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 10, 2026? Above $77.99 · settles today | Commodities | 74% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 143 days | Everything Else | 22% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 820 days | Politics | 22% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 820 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 118 days | Sports | 84% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 143 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 325 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Robert Pattison win Best Actor at the Oscars? Robert Pattison · settles in 508 days | Culture | 12% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 55000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 55K · settles in 6 days | Culture | 10% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 32 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Eliot Nobel win the Nobel vs Benaim: M15 Turku Round of 16 match? Eliot Nobel · settles today | Tennis | 95.0% — |
| Teremoana Teremoana vs Deandre Savage Winner? Teremoana Teremoana · settles in 2 days | Boxing | 95.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 10, 2026? The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare: Season 1 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 97.5% — 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will The Last House be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 10, 2026? The Last House · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 76.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 10, 2026? Above $76.49 · settles today | Commodities | 94.0% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 75.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 10, 2026? Above $75.99 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026? Above 15 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 94.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2.25 at 4 PM ET on Aug 14? Above $2.25 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 94.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Mandela Barnes endorse No one in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026? No one · settles tomorrow | Politics | 96.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7729.9999 on Aug 10, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,730 or above · settles today | Markets | 97.0% — |