Edition of August 13, 2026 · built from 5,842 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Before Dec 1, 2026 at 84% this morning. · ▲ 50 points overnight · settles in 172 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Trump endorse at least 25 people on Truth Social this week? Surging At least 25 | Everything Else | 98% ▲ 89 7d: ▲ 83 |
| Will Aleksandra Goryachkina be rated top 10 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in September 2026? Aleksandra Goryachkina | Everything Else | 65% ▲ 58 7d: ▲ 58 |
| Google market share this week? Surging Above 25% | Everything Else | 27% ▼ 54 7d: ▼ 54 |
| Will there be at least 1 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 9, 2026? Surging At least 1 | Politics | 16% ▼ 55 7d: ▼ 31 |
| Will Democrats win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio? Alaska, Iowa, Ohio | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 49 |
| Will Pitbull release a new album before Dec 1, 2026? Surging Before Dec 1, 2026 | Culture | 84% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will Aleksandra Goryachkina be rated top 10 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in October 2026? Aleksandra Goryachkina | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will Clare Barber become Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election? Clare Barber | Politics | 50% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will Ben Shelton win the ATP Montreal? Surging Ben Shelton | Tennis | 67% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 55 |
| Will Shygirl be featured on 'Popstar' by Tinashe? Shygirl | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 41 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 13, 2026? Above $82.49 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 32% ▼ 21 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Lugano wins by more than 1.5 goals? Goal Diff Reg Time: Lugano wins by more than 1.5 goals | Everything Else | later today | 47% — |
| Will Chuk Anyanwu be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 14, 2026? Chuk Anyanwu | Everything Else | tomorrow | 36% ▼ 5 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.1 and 39.3 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 to 39.3 | Politics | tomorrow | 56% ▲ 13 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on August 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $86.99 | Commodities | tomorrow | 60% ▼ 6 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? Scottie Scheffler | Golf | in 3 days | 16% — |
| Will Islam Makhachev win the Makhachev vs Garry professional MMA fight scheduled for Aug 15, 2026? Islam Makhachev | UFC | in 3 days | 76% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 55000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 55K | Culture | in 3 days | 12% — 7d: ▼ 43 |
| Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes | Politics | in 5 days | 29% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 17, 2026? My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3 | Culture | in 5 days | 26% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will James Fishback receive at least 12% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary? At least 12% | Politics | in 5 days | 52% ▼ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 34 days | Economy | 34% — 7d: ▼ 24 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 118 days | Economy | 32% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 13, 2026? Above $82.49 · settles today | Commodities | 32% ▼ 21 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Will My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 17, 2026? My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 26% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will Islam Makhachev win the Makhachev vs Garry professional MMA fight scheduled for Aug 15, 2026? Islam Makhachev · settles in 3 days | UFC | 76% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026? Yes · settles in 141 days | Politics | 24% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 817 days | Politics | 23% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 55 days | Everything Else | 80% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 140 days | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 817 days | Everything Else | 17% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 115 days | Sports | 84% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles in 3 days | Golf | 16% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 82.00 and 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 14, 2026? $82.00 to $82.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 15% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Before Oct 1, 2026 · settles in 141 days | Politics | 86% — 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia before Sep 1, 2026? Before Sep 1, 2026 · settles in 141 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 322 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 817 days | Politics | 13% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 55000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 55K · settles in 3 days | Culture | 12% — 7d: ▼ 43 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Yu Jun Lin win the Lin vs Gao: W15 Tianjin Round of 16 match? Yu Jun Lin · settles today | Tennis | 95.0% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.060? Above 4.060 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 65 |
| Will Fanming Meng win the Meng vs Arcon: M15 Tianjin Round of 16 match? Fanming Meng · settles today | Tennis | 95.0% — |
| Will The Last House be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 17, 2026? The Last House · settles in 5 days | Culture | 93.5% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will Trump endorse at least 25 people on Truth Social this week? At least 25 · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 89 7d: ▲ 83 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 21 million views? At least 21 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 96.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on August 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $80.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 97.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 13, 2026? Above $78.99 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.55% on Aug 14, 2026? 4.56% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 94.0% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Aug 13, 2026? 5.15% or above · settles today | Economy | 98.5% — |