Edition of August 14, 2026 · built from 6,261 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Lorie Logan at 34% this morning. · ▼ 36 points overnight · settles in 33 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Australia vs Bangladesh match: Australia wins Surging Australia | Sports | 36% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 58 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.100? Surging Above 4.100 | Everything Else | 30% ▼ 48 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Nimrods Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 80 | Culture | 4% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 33 |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20? Surging Rory McIlroy | Golf | 16% ▼ 41 7d: ▼ 43 |
| The End of Oak Street Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 82 | Culture | 98% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will I Knew It, I Knew You be #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 22, 2026 Surging I Knew It, I Knew You | Culture | 71% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Aug 9, 2026 and Aug 15, 2026? Above 1 | Politics | 12% ▼ 39 7d: ▼ 36 |
| How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Aug 2026? 3 | Everything Else | 38% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29.3 million funded customers in Q3 2026? Surging Above 29.3 million | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 37 |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10? Rory McIlroy | Golf | 6% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 31 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Samsung Lions win by over 1.5 runs? Samsung Lions wins by over 1.5 runs | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 41% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.1 and 39.3 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 to 39.3 | Politics | in 7 hours | 76% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 51 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 82.00 and 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 14, 2026? $82.00 to $82.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 26% ▲ 13 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 14, 2026? Above $81.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 64% — |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? Scottie Scheffler | Golf | tomorrow | 12% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 55000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 55K | Culture | in 2 days | 39% ▲ 18 7d: ▼ 42 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.080? Above 4.080 | Everything Else | in 3 days | 68% ▼ 26 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Nimrods Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 75 | Culture | in 3 days | 55% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 17 |
| Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes | Politics | in 4 days | 30% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Australia vs Bangladesh match: Bangladesh wins Bangladesh | Sports | in 4 days | 54% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will James Fishback receive at least 12% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary? At least 12% | Politics | in 4 days | 48% ▼ 5 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Australia win? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 days | 38% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Australia vs Bangladesh match: Bangladesh wins Bangladesh · settles in 4 days | Sports | 54% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes · settles in 76 days | Economy | 44% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 55000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 55K · settles in 2 days | Culture | 39% ▲ 18 7d: ▼ 42 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 117 days | Economy | 28% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 82.00 and 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 14, 2026? $82.00 to $82.99 · settles today | Commodities | 26% ▲ 13 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 816 days | Politics | 23% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will America win the 2026 Leagues Cup? America · settles in 24 days | Everything Else | 22% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026? Yes · settles in 140 days | Politics | 22% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will hate that i made you love me be #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 22, 2026 hate that i made you love me · settles in 12 days | Culture | 18% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 39 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 139 days | Everything Else | 18% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 816 days | Everything Else | 17% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7825 and 7849.9999 on Aug 14, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,825 to 7,849.9999 · settles today | Markets | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 114 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 54 days | Everything Else | 84% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 816 days | Politics | 13% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 321 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles tomorrow | Golf | 12% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Before Oct 1, 2026 · settles in 140 days | Politics | 88% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 16 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Sean Cuenin win the Cuenin vs Obradovic: M25 Kursumlijska Banja Quarterfinal match? Sean Cuenin · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 17, 2026? My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 95.5% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 78 |
| Will Rositsa Dencheva win the Dencheva vs Zavatska: W75 Kursumlijska Banja Quarterfinal match? Rositsa Dencheva · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Will The Last House be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 17, 2026? The Last House · settles in 4 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on August 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $84.99 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 58 |
| DeepSeek market share this week? Above 22% · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 14, 2026? Above $79.99 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 37 |
| OpenAI market share this week? Above 15.5% · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 94.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.27% on Aug 14, 2026? 4.28% or above · settles today | Economy | 94.0% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 16 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7729.9999 on Aug 14, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,730 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.5% — |