Edition of August 17, 2026 · built from 6,688 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 30% this morning. · ▲ 29 points overnight · settles in 137 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes be #2 US Netflix Show on Aug 17, 2026? Surging Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes | Culture | 96% ▲ 90 7d: ▲ 86 |
| Will Bad Bunny have above 30M daily views at any point during August 10, 2026 - August 16, 2026 ? Above 30M | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 53 7d: ▼ 53 |
| Sri Lanka vs India match: India wins Surging India | Sports | 82% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will WILD by KATSEYE have above 150000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 150K | Culture | 96% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 81 |
| Will Ryan Flaherty be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 30% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 29 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 55% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 102.5 ? Above 102.5 | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 44 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Keith Gross receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the FL-02 Republican primary? At least 35% | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 109 ? Above 109 | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will Belinda Keiser receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the FL-22 Republican primary? At least 40% | Everything Else | 10% ▼ 41 7d: ▼ 2 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandra Biot win the Salvadori vs Biot: W35 Verbier Round of 16 match? Alexandra Biot | Tennis | in 4 hours | 56% — |
| The Brink of War Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 70 | Culture | in 5 hours | 84% ▲ 58 7d: ▲ 58 |
| Will the President's approval rating be exactly 39.1 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 | Politics | in 7 hours | 44% — |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 38% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 17, 2026? Above $81.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 48% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4384 USD/t.oz on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4384 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 62% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Yes | Politics | later today | 82% — |
| Will Arthur The King be #2 US Netflix Movie on Aug 17, 2026? Arthur The King | Culture | tomorrow | 56% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Will James Martin be the Democratic nominee for FL-21? James Martin | Politics | tomorrow | 63% — 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will James Fishback receive at least 11% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary? At least 11% | Everything Else | tomorrow | 46% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 53% — |
| Sri Lanka vs India match: India wins India | Sports | in 3 days | 82% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 22 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Arthur The King be #2 US Netflix Movie on Aug 17, 2026? Arthur The King · settles tomorrow | Culture | 56% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes · settles in 73 days | Economy | 39% — 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will Sofia Alekseeva win the Grekul vs Alekseeva: W35 Verbier Round of 16 match? Sofia Alekseeva · settles today | Tennis | 34% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 17, 2026? Above $80.99 · settles today | Commodities | 74% ▲ 21 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 114 days | Economy | 24% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 813 days | Politics | 23% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026? Yes · settles in 137 days | Politics | 22% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Will America win the 2026 Leagues Cup? America · settles in 21 days | Everything Else | 20% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Sri Lanka vs India match: India wins India · settles in 3 days | Sports | 82% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 136 days | Everything Else | 18% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 813 days | Everything Else | 17% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 111 days | Sports | 84% — |
| The Brink of War Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 70 · settles today | Culture | 84% ▲ 58 7d: ▲ 58 |
| GDP growth in 2035? 1.6% to 2.0% · settles in 3482 days | Economy | 14% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 813 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 318 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 51 days | Everything Else | 87% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Before Oct 1, 2026 · settles in 137 days | Politics | 88% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| The End of Oak Street Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 85 · settles today | Culture | 98.0% ▲ 88 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Beatrice Ricci win the Ricci vs Maric: W75 Kursumlijska Banja Round of 16 match? Beatrice Ricci · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 17, 2026? My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 80 |
| Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? Yes · settles today | Politics | 93.0% — |
| Amanda Serrano vs Lucrecia Anabella Manzur Winner? Amanda Serrano · settles in 5 days | Boxing | 94.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 17, 2026? Above $79.49 · settles today | Commodities | 94.5% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 17, 2026? Above $78.99 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Aug 21? Above $4.00 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 96.0% ▲ 27 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will there be more than 10 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 10, 2026 to Aug 16, 2026? Above 10 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 97.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7764.9999 on Aug 17, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,765 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.0% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 27 |