Edition of September 20, 2026 · built from 5,945 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 80% this morning. · ▼ 4 points overnight · settles in 467 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Drew Campbell be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Sep 25, 2026? Drew Campbell | Everything Else | 4% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 44 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 21, 2026? Above $99.99 | Commodities | 53% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County? Kent | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.4900? Above 4.4900 | Everything Else | 3% ▼ 28 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will James Talarico win Fort Bend County? Fort Bend | Everything Else | 48% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Will Canada Inflation Rate YoY exceed Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY for September 2026? Canada higher? | NFL | 51% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| What will Melania Trump say during Fostering the Future Together originally scheduled for September 22, 2026? Peace / Peaceful | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will China announce a new Boeing aircraft order in Sep 2026? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 64% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will South Africa retail sales MoM for August 2026 be above -1.0%? Surging Above -1.0% | Everything Else | 37% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 31 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 100 USD/Bbl on September 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $100 | Commodities | 63% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 29 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Morderger wins Yana Morderger | Tennis | in 2 hours | 18% — |
| Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m? Yes | Culture | in 3 hours | 55% — |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20? Yes | Everything Else | in 6 hours | 48% — |
| Vitality wins Vitality | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 66% — |
| Leicestershire wins Leicestershire | Everything Else | in 9 hours | 56% — |
| Saquon Barkley: 1+ touchdowns Saquon Barkley: 1+ | NFL | in 11 hours | 50% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 21, 2026? Above $99.99 | Commodities | tomorrow | 53% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7650.12 on Sep 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? Above 7650.12 | Markets | tomorrow | 54% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will The Debut win the People's Choice Award at 2026 Toronto International Film Festival? The Debut | Culture | tomorrow | 33% ▲ 11 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Why Did I Get Married Again? be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? Why Did I Get Married Again? | Culture | in 2 days | 25% ▲ 5 7d: ▼ 50 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 38.8 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 38.8 | Politics | in 5 days | 14% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m? Yes · settles today | Culture | 55% — |
| Carolina Gomez wins Carolina Gomez · settles today | Tennis | 66% — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 81 days | Economy | 68% — 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will SNSD finish 2nd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election? SNSD · settles in 102 days | Politics | 70% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Dec 1, 2026? Before Dec 1, 2026 · settles in 103 days | Everything Else | 30% ▲ 1 |
| Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026? Exactly 3 · settles in 105 days | Economy | 29% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Why Did I Get Married Again? be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? Why Did I Get Married Again? · settles in 2 days | Culture | 25% ▲ 5 7d: ▼ 50 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes · settles in 102 days | Economy | 77% — 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 779 days | Politics | 21% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Kia Tigers wins Kia Tigers · settles today | Everything Else | 80% — |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes · settles in 10 days | Politics | 80% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Yana Morderger wins Yana Morderger · settles today | Tennis | 18% — |
| Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses? Rogers wins, Collins loses · settles in 44 days | Politics | 18% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Club Kid win the People's Choice Award at 2026 Toronto International Film Festival? Club Kid · settles tomorrow | Culture | 16% ▲ 6 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 103 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 779 days | Everything Else | 15% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 102 days | Culture | 85% ▲ 10 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026? Before 2027 · settles in 833 days | Economy | 86% — 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 193 days | NFL | 12% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 284 days | NBA | 11% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will average gas prices be above $4.4700? Above 4.4700 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 97.0% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Pierluigi Basile wins Pierluigi Basile · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 93 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Iva Primorac Pavicic wins Iva Primorac Pavicic · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 21, 2026? Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story · settles in 2 days | Culture | 98.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 21, 2026? Above $89.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 97.5% — |
| Will it rain in Trenton on Sep 20, 2026? Trenton · settles tomorrow | News | 93.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 21, 2026? Above $93.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 94.5% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 16 |
| Will Drake have above 13.75M daily views at any point during September 14, 2026 - September 20, 2026? Above 13.75M · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 94.5% ▲ 64 7d: ▲ 64 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >64° in Philadelphia on Sep 20, 2026? 65° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 96.0% — |