Edition of September 22, 2026 · built from 4,927 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put NVIDIA at 28% this morning. · ▼ 28 points overnight · settles in 14 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Drew Campbell be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Sep 25, 2026? Surging Drew Campbell | Everything Else | 34% ▲ 30 7d: ▼ 14 |
| India A wins Surging India A | Everything Else | 34% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 13 |
| Will John Malkovich be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? John Malkovich | Everything Else | 92% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will COCOON by Yeat have above 15000000 streams during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week? Above 15M | Culture | 28% ▼ 39 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 66% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Webb County, Texas? At least 66% | Politics | 50% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >49° in Minneapolis on Sep 22, 2026? 50° or above | News | 75% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Masoud Pezeshkian in Sep 2026? Masoud Pezeshkian | Everything Else | 26% ▼ 41 7d: ▼ 41 |
| Top Chinese AI Company week of September 28th? Moonshot | Everything Else | 8% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Will Steve Hilton win Orange County? Orange | Everything Else | 22% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 29 |
| Will Mainland China's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? Mainland China | Economy | 16% ▼ 28 7d: ▲ 2 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yomiuri Giants wins Yomiuri Giants | Everything Else | within the hour | 40% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,330.63 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 30% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30379.99 at the end of Sep 22, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 30,380 or above | Markets | later today | 69% — |
| Green Bay wins Green Bay | NFL | in 3 days | 72% ▼ 2 |
| Will Rick Devens be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Sep 25, 2026? Rick Devens | Everything Else | in 3 days | 34% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 | Politics | in 3 days | 20% ▲ 7 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Ole Miss wins Ole Miss | College | in 4 days | 42% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Will COCOON by Yeat have above 15000000 streams during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week? Above 15M | Culture | in 5 days | 28% ▼ 39 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 | Culture | in 6 days | 48% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Sep 28, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 6 days | 36% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss wins Ole Miss · settles in 4 days | College | 42% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Yomiuri Giants wins Yomiuri Giants · settles today | Everything Else | 40% — |
| Will Rick Devens be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Sep 25, 2026? Rick Devens · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 34% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 79 days | Economy | 70% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026? Exactly 3 · settles in 103 days | Economy | 26% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 777 days | Politics | 21% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 282 days | Culture | 82% — |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes · settles in 100 days | Economy | 82% — 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 97 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 16% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 191 days | Culture | 84% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Linang Xiao wins Linang Xiao · settles today | Tennis | 16% — |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 85 · settles in 62 days | Culture | 16% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 101 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses? Rogers wins, Collins loses · settles in 42 days | Politics | 14% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 852 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 778 days | Everything Else | 13% — 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026? Before 2027 · settles in 831 days | Economy | 88% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.2 according to RealClearPolitics? 40.0 to 40.2 · settles in 3 days | Politics | 12% ▼ 17 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 191 days | NFL | 12% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 282 days | NBA | 11% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? Yes · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 98.4% — |
| Anna Kubareva wins Anna Kubareva · settles today | Tennis | 94.0% — |
| Will there be more than 10 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026? Above 10 · settles today | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| SMU wins SMU · settles in 4 days | College | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will it rain in Philadelphia on Sep 22, 2026? Philadelphia · settles tomorrow | News | 95.0% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7699.9999 on Sep 22, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,700 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.0% — |
| Will the Index.US30/USD be at least $51,675 at September 22, 2026 at 10am ET? At least $51,675 · settles today | Markets | 98.0% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4255 USD/t.oz on September 22, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4255 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% — |