Edition of October 1, 2026 · built from 2,949 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Connor Zilisch at 51% this morning. · ▲ 18 points overnight · settles in 4 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | 27% ▼ 62 7d: ▼ 62 |
| Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 30, 2026 be exactly 3.90%? Exactly 3.90% | Everything Else | 69% ▲ 44 |
| Google market share this week? Above 20.8% | Everything Else | 40% ▲ 36 7d: ▼ 12 |
| OpenAI market share this week? Above 20.3% | Everything Else | 40% ▲ 38 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >76° in Chicago on Oct 1, 2026? 77° or above | News | 6% ▼ 34 |
| What will Donald Trump say during remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company in Denton, Texas originally scheduled for October 1, 2026? AI / Artificial Intelligence | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Anthropic market share this week? Above 3.0% | Everything Else | 47% ▲ 40 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027? 5.35% or above | Economy | 62% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Arsenal wins Arsenal | Champions League | 45% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? | Everything Else | 36% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 30 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Ryser wins Valentina Ryser | Tennis | in 5 hours | 57% — |
| BIG wins BIG | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 62% — |
| Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 38.5 on Oct 1, 2026? Below 38.5% | Everything Else | in 8 hours | 46% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 1, 2026? Above $91.49 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 72% — |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-10-01? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 48% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4177 USD/t.oz on October 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4177 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 42% — |
| DK Metcalf fantasy scalar ladder DK Metcalf | NFL | later today | 12% — |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 14% — |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? Yes | Politics | in 4 days | 32% — |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? Yes | Politics | in 4 days | 57% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 48 | Culture | in 4 days | 79% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will UNABOMBER be Top US Netflix Movie on Oct 5, 2026? UNABOMBER | Culture | in 5 days | 60% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes · settles in 119 days | Economy | 52% — |
| Alex Bolt wins Alex Bolt · | Tennis | 54% — |
| Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 38.5 on Oct 1, 2026? Below 38.5% · settles today | Everything Else | 46% — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes · settles in 119 days | Economy | 46% — |
| Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election? 2 · settles in 165 days | Politics | 43% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4177 USD/t.oz on October 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4177 · settles today | Commodities | 42% — |
| Will UNABOMBER be Top US Netflix Movie on Oct 5, 2026? UNABOMBER · settles in 5 days | Culture | 60% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| BIG wins BIG · settles today | Everything Else | 62% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 1, 2026? Above $91.49 · settles today | Commodities | 72% — |
| Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? Yes · | Culture | 28% ▼ 35 7d: ▼ 35 |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 48 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 79% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 769 days | Politics | 21% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 769 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Democrats win more than 10 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in New Jersey? Above 10 · settles in 95 days | Politics | 14% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 92 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 1 |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Yes · settles in 92 days | Sports | 14% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes · settles in 182 days | Culture | 14% — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 769 days | Politics | 13% — |
| DK Metcalf fantasy scalar ladder DK Metcalf · settles today | NFL | 12% — |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 242 days | Champions League | 10% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? Yes · settles in 4 days | Politics | 95.0% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will Rafael Fonteles win the 2026 Piauí gubernatorial election? Yes · settles in 4 days | Politics | 98.7% — |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 43 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 98.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 87.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 1, 2026? Above $87.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.0% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% on Oct 1, 2026? 5.17% or above · settles today | Economy | 94.0% — |
| Will it rain in San Antonio on Oct 1, 2026? San Antonio · settles tomorrow | News | 98.5% — |
| Will it rain in Miami on Oct 1, 2026? Miami · settles tomorrow | News | 96.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 1, 2026? Above $88.99 · settles today | Commodities | 94.5% — |
| Florent Bax wins Florent Bax · settles today | Tennis | 96.0% — |
| Alec Beckley wins Alec Beckley · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |