Edition of October 4, 2026 · built from 6,683 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above $12.5M at 50% this morning. · ▼ 46 points overnight · settles in 46 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will East of Eden: Limited Series be #2 US Netflix Show on Oct 5, 2026? East of Eden: Limited Series | Culture | 65% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 43 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >98° in Los Angeles on Oct 4, 2026? 99° or above | News | 80% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 35 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <82° in San Antonio on Oct 4, 2026? 81° or below | News | 82% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will the lot sold price of the Le Jardin des Tuileries by Claude Monet on Sotheby's be above $12500000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? Surging Above $12.5M | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 46 |
| Will Tesla report Above 475,000 total deliveries in Q1 2027? Above 475,000 | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 34 |
| Will the FAO Food Price Index for October 2026 be above 140.0? Above 140.0 | Everything Else | 48% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will it rain in Dallas on Oct 4, 2026? Dallas | News | 68% ▲ 28 |
| Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.5%? Surging Above 2.5% | Economy | 63% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will Film & TV Streaming Ad Spend for September 2026 be above 83? Above 83 | Culture | 89% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >90° in San Francisco on Oct 4, 2026? 91° or above | News | 40% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 29 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main Race: Max Verstappen wins Max Verstappen | F1 | in 4 hours | 65% ▲ 54 7d: ▲ 3 |
| LOUD wins LOUD | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 56% — |
| BNK FEARX wins BNK FEARX | Everything Else | in 6 hours | 76% — |
| Kyle Monangai: 1+ touchdowns Kyle Monangai: 1+ | NFL | later today | 30% — 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes | Politics | later today | 36% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes | Politics | later today | 20% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 52 | Culture | tomorrow | 27% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 5, 2026? Above $90.49 | Commodities | tomorrow | 61% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4143 USD/t.oz on October 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4143 | Commodities | tomorrow | 52% — |
| Will East of Eden: Limited Series be #2 US Netflix Show on Oct 5, 2026? East of Eden: Limited Series | Culture | in 2 days | 65% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 43 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 days | 75% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 43 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 37.9 and 38.1 according to RealClearPolitics? 37.9 to 38.1 | Politics | in 5 days | 25% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the gold close price be above 4133 USD/t.oz on October 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4133 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 60% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election? 2 · settles in 162 days | Politics | 39% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Alex de Minaur wins Alex de Minaur · | Tennis | 62% — |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · settles today | Politics | 36% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Valentin Vacherot wins Valentin Vacherot · | Tennis | 36% — |
| Libertad wins Libertad · | Everything Else | 36% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes · settles in 116 days | Economy | 64% — 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will How To Quit Smoking by Dominic Fike have above 1000000 streams during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week? Above 1M · settles in 14 days | Culture | 33% ▲ 16 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Digger Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 52 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 27% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 12 |
| BNK FEARX wins BNK FEARX · settles today | Everything Else | 76% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 766 days | Politics | 21% — |
| Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026? 5.23% or below · settles in 26 days | Economy | 80% ▼ 10 7d: ▼ 14 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 766 days | Everything Else | 16% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 89 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 |
| Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Oct 2026? 0 · settles in 28 days | Politics | 12% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 270 days | NBA | 12% ▲ 4 |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Yes · settles in 89 days | Sports | 11% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 24 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? Yes · settles today | Politics | 95.9% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 20 |
| KT Rolster wins KT Rolster · settles today | Everything Else | 96.5% — |
| Will UNABOMBER be Top US Netflix Movie on Oct 5, 2026? UNABOMBER · settles in 2 days | Culture | 94.5% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Yuta Kikuchi wins Yuta Kikuchi · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Argentina wins Argentina · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 94.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 16 |
| Noa Krznaric Uygungul wins Noa Krznaric Uygungul · settles today | Tennis | 94.0% — |
| Will it rain in Atlanta on Oct 4, 2026? Atlanta · settles tomorrow | News | 96.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 5, 2026? Above $85.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 96.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% on Oct 5, 2026? 5.17% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 97.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Oct 5, 2026? 5.15% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 98.5% — |