Edition of August 6, 2026 · built from 6,338 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Baidu at 62% this morning. · ▲ 27 points overnight · settles in 147 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.3%? Above 25.3% | Economy | 50% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 44 |
| What will Donald Trump say during next White House livestream (excluding Remarks in Las Vegas, Nevada)? Iran (3+ times) | Everything Else | 30% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Who will dissent at the September 2026 FOMC meeting? Beth Hammack | Economy | 72% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 53 |
| Will it rain in Houston on Aug 6, 2026? Houston | Everything Else | 66% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics? Surging Below 39.2 | Politics | 37% ▼ 34 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will Shopify Inc. report Above $460 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? Above $460 billion | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Where will Rodri go next? Surging Real Madrid | Everything Else | 36% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $8 at 4 PM ET on Aug 14? Above $8.00 | Everything Else | 45% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Rain in Chicago in Aug 2026? Surging Above 3 inches | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 41 7d: ▼ 44 |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.799 at 5pm ET on Aug 07? Above 0.799 | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 31 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore wins by over 1.5 runs? Baltimore wins by over 1.5 runs | MLB | in 11 hours | 48% — |
| Will Drew Campbell be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 7, 2026? Drew Campbell | Everything Else | tomorrow | 24% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 39.2 | Politics | tomorrow | 37% ▼ 34 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 16% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be below 73.00 USD/Bbl on Aug 7, 2026? Below $73.00 | Commodities | tomorrow | 24% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $78.99 | Commodities | tomorrow | 57% ▲ 6 7d: ▼ 19 |
| Will Quillan Salkilld win the Gamrot vs Salkilld professional MMA fight scheduled for Aug 8, 2026? Quillan Salkilld | UFC | in 3 days | 57% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia before Sep 1, 2026? Before Sep 1, 2026 | Everything Else | in 3 days | 30% — 7d: ▼ 27 |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 310000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 310K | Culture | in 3 days | 34% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 29 |
| Ice Cream Man Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 30 | Culture | in 4 days | 26% ▼ 10 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Aug 10, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 4 days | 52% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? Yes | Economy | in 6 days | 44% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 62 days | Everything Else | 49% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Sora Fukuda win the Kachmazov vs Fukuda: M15 Astana Round of 32 match? Sora Fukuda · | Tennis | 52% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 41 days | Economy | 54% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Australia unemployment rate in July 2026? Above 4.9% · settles in 21 days | Economy | 58% — |
| Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%? Francesca Hong, ≥15% · settles in 370 days | Politics | 40% — 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Ice Cream Man Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 30 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 26% ▼ 10 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026? Yes · settles in 148 days | Politics | 24% ▼ 16 7d: ▼ 31 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be below 73.00 USD/Bbl on Aug 7, 2026? Below $73.00 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 24% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 824 days | Politics | 21% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 824 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 147 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 122 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 320000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 320K · settles in 3 days | Culture | 15% ▲ 5 7d: ▼ 59 |
| Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? Spain · settles in 1609 days | World Cup | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Where will Vinicius Junior go next? Arsenal · settles in 57 days | Everything Else | 13% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 824 days | Politics | 12% — |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? Yes · settles in 56 days | Sports | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes · | Economy | 12% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Ice Cream Man Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 20 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 280000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 280K · settles in 3 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Ajax vs Shelbourne Winner? Ajax · settles today | Conference League | 93.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Aug 2, 2026? At least 2 · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Kauno vs Dinamo Zagreb: Dinamo Zagreb To Advance Dinamo Zagreb advances · settles in 5 days | Champions League | 96.5% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $3.960? Above 3.960 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 96.5% — 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 72.99 USD/Bbl on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $72.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 96.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 72.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 6, 2026? Above $72.49 · settles today | Commodities | 96.0% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Aug 7, 2026? 5.1% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 94.5% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 3 |