Edition of August 7, 2026 · built from 6,846 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Barcelona at 90% this morning. · ▲ 50 points overnight · settles in 56 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will James Talarico be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Aug 7 at 10:00 AM ET? James Talarico | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 74 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will Drake have above 13M daily views at any point during August 3, 2026 - August 9, 2026? Surging Above 13M | Everything Else | 65% ▲ 64 7d: ▲ 58 |
| Where will Rodri go next? Surging Barcelona | Everything Else | 90% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 88 |
| Will OpenAI release Astra before Aug 21, 2026? Before Aug 21, 2026 | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 62 7d: ▲ 62 |
| Australia unemployment rate in July 2026? Above 4.9% | Economy | 8% ▼ 51 7d: ▼ 51 |
| Wyndham Championship: Will Beau Hossler finish top 20? Surging Beau Hossler | Golf | 70% ▲ 52 7d: ▲ 52 |
| Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.3%? Above 25.3% | Economy | 97% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 12.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026? Surging Above 12.5% | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 50 7d: ▼ 52 |
| Wyndham Championship: Will Beau Hossler finish top 10? Beau Hossler | Golf | 51% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 40 |
| What will DraftKings Inc. say during their next earnings call? Surging Spanish | Everything Else | 88% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 69 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ryo Tabata win the Pleshivtsev vs Tabata: M15 Astana Round of 16 match? Ryo Tabata | Tennis | in 3 hours | 66% — |
| Will Ivan Gretskiy win the Sornlaksup vs Gretskiy: M15 Astana Round of 16 match? Ivan Gretskiy | Tennis | in 3 hours | 32% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 39.2 | Politics | in 6 hours | 62% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 12% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 77.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 7, 2026? Above $77.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 42% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $82.99 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 52% ▲ 34 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will Joaquin Niemann win the LIV Golf New York? Joaquin Niemann | Everything Else | tomorrow | 44% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia before Sep 1, 2026? Before Sep 1, 2026 | Everything Else | in 2 days | 28% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 310000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 310K | Culture | in 2 days | 34% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Ice Cream Man Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 25 | Culture | in 3 days | 84% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Aug 10, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 3 days | 26% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? Yes | Economy | in 5 days | 46% ▲ 1 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 40 days | Economy | 50% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 147 days | Politics | 46% ▼ 17 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes · settles in 83 days | Economy | 54% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will Ryo Tabata win the Pleshivtsev vs Tabata: M15 Astana Round of 16 match? Ryo Tabata · settles today | Tennis | 66% — |
| Will Ivan Gretskiy win the Sornlaksup vs Gretskiy: M15 Astana Round of 16 match? Ivan Gretskiy · settles today | Tennis | 32% — |
| Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026? Yes · settles in 147 days | Politics | 26% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 29 |
| Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 61 days | Everything Else | 76% ▲ 27 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 146 days | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 823 days | Politics | 21% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 78.00 and 78.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 7, 2026? $78.00 to $78.99 · settles today | Commodities | 19% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 823 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 146 days | Everything Else | 18% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will 72 HOURS be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 10, 2026? 72 HOURS · settles in 4 days | Culture | 16% ▼ 24 7d: ▼ 17 |
| Ice Cream Man Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 30 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 16% ▼ 11 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 121 days | Sports | 84% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $86.99 · settles today | Commodities | 12% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 23 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? Yes · settles in 55 days | Sports | 12% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 823 days | Politics | 11% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Walid Ahouda win the Pisaric vs Ahouda: M25 Kursumlijska Banja Quarterfinal match? Walid Ahouda · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Best AI this week Claude · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 98.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will JD Gaming win the EDward Gaming vs. JD Gaming League of Legends match? JD Gaming · settles today | Sports | 98.5% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 280000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 280K · settles in 2 days | Culture | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $78.99 · settles today | Commodities | 95.0% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 10, 2026? The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare: Season 1 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 95.5% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average be above 38.1% at 10:00 AM ET on Aug 7, 2026? Above 38.1% · settles today | Everything Else | 97.0% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 74.99 USD/Bbl on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $74.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.27% on Aug 7, 2026? 4.28% or above · settles today | Economy | 93.5% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7629.9999 on Aug 7, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,630 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.0% — |