Today’s Number
FedEx St. Jude Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 5?
Market-consensus odds put Sam Burns at 86% this morning. · ▲ 74 points overnight · settles in 14 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of August 16, 2026
Edition of August 16, 2026 · built from 6,664 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
86%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| FedEx St. Jude Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 5? Surging Sam Burns | Golf | 86% ▲ 74 7d: ▲ 69 |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 20? Tom Kim | Golf | 81% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 44 |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 10? Surging Sam Burns | Golf | 92% ▲ 62 7d: ▲ 62 |
| The End of Oak Street Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 84 | Culture | 98% ▲ 52 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Nimrods Rotten Tomatoes score? Surging Above 75 | Culture | 12% ▼ 50 7d: ▼ 60 |
| Will Abercrombie & Fitch Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 94 ? Above 94 | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 46 |
| Will Kamu Kirk be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 21, 2026? Kamu Kirk | Everything Else | 44% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will WILD by KATSEYE have above 125000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 125K | Culture | 83% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Sri Lanka vs India match: Draw/Tie wins Draw/Tie | Sports | 56% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will Initiative 1 pass? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 40% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hayato Matsuoka win the Dougaz vs Matsuoka: Final match? Hayato Matsuoka | Tennis | in 2 hours | 57% — |
| Will Chengyiyi Yuan win the Yuan vs Naklo: W15 Tianjin Final match? Chengyiyi Yuan | Tennis | in 4 hours | 68% — |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-16? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 34% — |
| Nimrods Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 75 | Culture | tomorrow | 12% ▼ 50 7d: ▼ 60 |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Aug 17, 2026? Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Politics | tomorrow | 16% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 64 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 17, 2026? Above $80.99 | Commodities | tomorrow | 54% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4374 USD/t.oz on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4374 | Commodities | tomorrow | 60% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 29% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 21% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Arthur The King be #2 US Netflix Movie on Aug 17, 2026? Arthur The King | Culture | in 2 days | 49% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 2 days | 26% — |
| Will James Martin be the Democratic nominee for FL-21? James Martin | Politics | in 2 days | 62% ▼ 8 7d: ▲ 1 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes · settles in 74 days | Economy | 39% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? Scottie Scheffler · | Golf | 67% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 52 |
| Will Chengyiyi Yuan win the Yuan vs Naklo: W15 Tianjin Final match? Chengyiyi Yuan · settles today | Tennis | 68% — |
| Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026? Yes · settles in 138 days | Politics | 26% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 814 days | Politics | 23% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 115 days | Economy | 22% — 7d: ▼ 13 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 137 days | Everything Else | 16% — |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 112 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 814 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will America win the 2026 Leagues Cup? America · settles in 22 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 7 |
| GDP growth in 2032? 2.1% to 2.5% · settles in 2388 days | Economy | 16% ▲ 1 |
| Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 52 days | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 12 |
| GDP growth in 2035? 1.6% to 2.0% · settles in 3483 days | Economy | 14% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 814 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 319 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Robert Pattison win Best Actor at the Oscars? Robert Pattison · settles in 502 days | Culture | 13% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Before Oct 1, 2026 · settles in 138 days | Politics | 88% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Nimrods Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 75 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 12% ▼ 50 7d: ▼ 60 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| The End of Oak Street Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 84 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 52 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Will Ksenia Zaytseva win the Hesse vs Zaytseva: W75 Kursumlijska Banja Round of 32 match? Ksenia Zaytseva · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 55000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Above 55K · settles today | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 92 7d: ▲ 88 |
| Will Javier Barranco Cosano win the Kozlovsky vs Barranco Cosano: Qualification Round 1 match? Javier Barranco Cosano · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Will Donald Trump make between 200 and 219 Truth Social posts the week of Aug 9, 2026? 200-219 · settles today | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 83 |
| Most popular AI this week? DeepSeek · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 94.5% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 77.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 17, 2026? Above $77.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 94.0% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 77.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 17, 2026? Above $77.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7709.9999 on Aug 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,710 or above · settles tomorrow | Markets | 95.0% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.50% on Aug 21, 2026? 4.51% or above · settles in 5 days | Economy | 95.5% — |