Edition of November 4, 2026 · built from 1,988 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 4:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 24% this morning. · ▲ 7 points overnight · settles in 735 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 53-54° in Minneapolis on Nov 4, 2026? 53° to 54° | News | 56% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 27 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <79° in New Orleans on Nov 4, 2026? 78° or below | News | 12% ▼ 36 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° in Oklahoma City on Nov 4, 2026? 68° to 69° | News | 23% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
| UC Riverside wins UC Riverside | College | 29% ▼ 30 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? Yes | Everything Else | 22% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will it rain in St. Louis on Nov 4, 2026? St. Louis | News | 4% ▼ 14 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 12% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 24% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes | Everything Else | 62% ▲ 8 7d: ▼ 7 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,033.93 | Commodities | within the hour | 54% — |
| Liquid wins Liquid | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 40% — |
| Oleg Kolninov wins Oleg Kolninov | Tennis | in 2 hours | 20% — |
| TheMongolz wins TheMongolz | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 26% — |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04? Yes | Everything Else | in 9 hours | 80% — |
| Will Como 1907 win on 2026-11-04? Yes | Everything Else | in 11 hours | 50% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7568.96 on Nov 4, 2026 at 4pm EST? Above 7568.96 | Markets | later today | 64% — |
| Full Game: over 45.5 points scored? Over 45.5 points | NFL | in 6 days | 48% — |
| Will Love Is Blind: S11: Boston be Top US Netflix Show on Nov 9, 2026? Love Is Blind: S11: Boston | Culture | in 6 days | 56% — |
| Will The Day After Tomorrow be Top US Netflix Movie on Nov 9, 2026? The Day After Tomorrow | Culture | in 6 days | 46% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 12 percentage points? James Talarico, 12+ pts · settles in 364 days | Politics | 50% — |
| Full Game: over 45.5 points scored? Over 45.5 points · settles in 6 days | NFL | 48% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,033.93 · settles today | Commodities | 54% — |
| Will The Day After Tomorrow be Top US Netflix Movie on Nov 9, 2026? The Day After Tomorrow · settles in 6 days | Culture | 46% — |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 10150000? Above 10.15M · settles in 364 days | Politics | 46% — |
| Will Love Is Blind: S11: Boston be Top US Netflix Show on Nov 9, 2026? Love Is Blind: S11: Boston · settles in 6 days | Culture | 56% — |
| Liquid wins Liquid · settles today | Everything Else | 40% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28049.99 at the end of Nov 4, 2026 at 10am EST? 28,050 or above · settles today | Markets | 70% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes · settles in 85 days | Economy | 72% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 15 |
| TheMongolz wins TheMongolz · settles today | Everything Else | 26% — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes · | Politics | 26% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Oleg Kolninov wins Oleg Kolninov · settles today | Tennis | 20% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 58 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 735 days | Politics | 15% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 735 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 228 days | Champions League | 14% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Yes · settles in 58 days | Sports | 13% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 239 days | Culture | 11% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 1 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club end in a draw? Yes · settles in 2 days | Sports | 93.5% — |
| Wenfei Yu wins Wenfei Yu · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7449.9999 on Nov 4, 2026 at 10am EST? 7,450 or above · settles today | Markets | 98.0% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7499.9999 on Nov 4, 2026 at 10am EST? 7,500 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.0% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 3958 USD/t.oz on November 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Above $3958 · settles today | Commodities | 95.0% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 3948 USD/t.oz on November 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Above $3948 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% — |
| Will it rain in Columbus on Nov 4, 2026? Columbus · settles tomorrow | News | 98.0% — |
| Will it rain in Detroit on Nov 4, 2026? Detroit · settles tomorrow | News | 96.5% — |
| The Cat in the Hat Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 30 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.0% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.85% on Nov 4, 2026? 4.86% or above · settles today | Economy | 93.0% — |